From 505b989e2dd38a48fe3de537946fe91d97bced8f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Claude Date: Sun, 12 Jul 2026 18:17:38 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 1/2] =?UTF-8?q?temporal:=20no-hindsight=20streamed-replay?= =?UTF-8?q?=20test=20=E2=80=94=20Spoiler=20classification=20IS=20the=20hin?= =?UTF-8?q?dsight=20gate?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Adds no_hindsight_streamed_known_game to temporal.rs's test module: a known game modelled as a Lance version stream (N plies, lance_version == ply, knowable_from = 0). A Strict-mode present-reader (QueryReference::at(v, 0)) sees every future row classify Anachronistic and refused by EpistemicMode::admits, so deinterlace's projection is exactly plies 0..=v; a contrasting Retro reader at the same v_ref sees the identical future row classify Spoiler and admitted, demonstrating structural blindness (Strict) vs. a deliberate opt-in horizon break (Retro). Corrects the brief's working assumption: the real no-hindsight gate a default Strict reader hits is Anachronistic-refused, not Spoiler — Spoiler only ever appears once the reader is already in Retro mode. Recorded as E-TEMPORAL-NO-HINDSIGHT-1 in EPIPHANIES.md. Co-Authored-By: Claude Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Awg6TXocHcwTtc6eGsHcdD --- .claude/board/EPIPHANIES.md | 6 ++ crates/lance-graph-planner/src/temporal.rs | 117 +++++++++++++++++++++ 2 files changed, 123 insertions(+) diff --git a/.claude/board/EPIPHANIES.md b/.claude/board/EPIPHANIES.md index 0e7b20c7..c380365c 100644 --- a/.claude/board/EPIPHANIES.md +++ b/.claude/board/EPIPHANIES.md @@ -1,3 +1,9 @@ +## 2026-07-12 — E-TEMPORAL-NO-HINDSIGHT-1 — temporal.rs's Spoiler/Anachronistic classification IS the no-hindsight gate, demonstrated on a streamed known-game version series + +**Status:** MEASURED (test, `crates/lance-graph-planner/src/temporal.rs::tests::no_hindsight_streamed_known_game`, 16/16 green in `temporal::tests`). +A short known game modelled as N plies -> N rows (`lance_version == ply`, `knowable_from = 0`); a `Strict` reader (`QueryReference::at(v, 0)`) pinned at ply `v` sees every future row classify `Anachronistic` (NOT `Spoiler`) and `EpistemicMode::Strict::admits` refuses it, so `deinterlace`'s projection is exactly plies `0..=v` — the future is structurally excluded, not silently readable. **Surprise vs. the brief's assumption:** `Spoiler` is what `Retro` mode (rung 9+) produces on an *intentional* peek past the horizon, not what `Strict` produces on an ordinary future row — the no-hindsight gate a default present-reader hits is `Anachronistic`-refused, and `Spoiler`-admitted is its deliberate opt-in contrast (both asserted in the same test). +**Cross-ref:** `AdaWorldAPI/stockfish-rs` `examples/hindsight_stream.rs` (`D-SF-HINDSIGHT-1`) consumes the zero-dep `TemporalPov` contract mirror of this machinery to re-run the rung/ladder reads under `Strict` discipline over real lichess games, fixing D-SF-RUNG-1's leaked-outcome oracle with real game `Result`s. + ## 2026-07-12 — E-SF-TRAP-LURE-GREEN-1 — opponent-aware lure synthesis works; opponent-model inference is the bottleneck (wave-2 arc: 4 probes + contract type + lichess-rs scaffold) **Status:** MEASURED (stockfish-rs `4c47ce1`/`eaa902b`/`f028442`/`1c9418f`, PR #10; lance-graph `0ed93b59`; lichess-rs `ce44ada`). diff --git a/crates/lance-graph-planner/src/temporal.rs b/crates/lance-graph-planner/src/temporal.rs index ae769195..65874d31 100644 --- a/crates/lance-graph-planner/src/temporal.rs +++ b/crates/lance-graph-planner/src/temporal.rs @@ -543,4 +543,121 @@ mod tests { "legacy row must sort by its lance_version, not 0" ); } + + /// No-hindsight guarantee, demonstrated on a streamed known game. + /// + /// A known game is modelled as a Lance version stream: N plies, one row + /// per ply, `lance_version == ply index`. The game's *class* (that a + /// game is being observed at all) was knowable from the start + /// (`knowable_from = 0`) — only the individual ply rows arrive later, one + /// per streamed version, exactly as `temporal.rs`'s doc comment describes + /// four independently-clocked producers merge-sorting onto one timeline. + /// + /// A `Strict`-mode reader (rung 0) pinned at ply `v` — the "present" — + /// must be structurally unable to see the game's outcome or any future + /// ply: [`classify`] marks every row with `row_version > v` as + /// [`TemporalStatus::Anachronistic`], and [`EpistemicMode::Strict`] + /// refuses (`admits` returns `false`) to dispatch on that status. The + /// hindsight leak `temporal.rs` refuses is therefore `Anachronistic` + /// under `Strict`, not silently-readable — so [`deinterlace`]'s + /// dispatchable projection for a `Strict` reader excludes every future + /// ply outright, by construction, not by convention. + /// + /// **Surprise vs. the naive expectation going in:** the "hindsight leak" + /// `Strict` refuses is [`TemporalStatus::Anachronistic`], **not** + /// [`TemporalStatus::Spoiler`]. Per [`classify`], `Spoiler` only ever + /// appears when the reader's own `mode` is already `Retro` — it is the + /// label for an *intentional* peek past one's own horizon, not the + /// default label a `Strict` reader sees on a future row. This test + /// demonstrates both: a `Strict` present-reader's future rows classify + /// `Anachronistic` and are refused; a contrasting `Retro` reader (rung + /// 9+) at the *same* `v_ref` sees the identical future row classify + /// `Spoiler` and admits it — the difference between structural + /// blindness (default) and a deliberate, opted-in horizon break, never + /// an accidental leak. + /// + /// Cross-ref: `AdaWorldAPI/stockfish-rs` `examples/hindsight_stream.rs` + /// (`D-SF-HINDSIGHT-1`) consumes the zero-dep `TemporalPov` mirror of + /// this exact machinery to re-run the rung/ladder reads under `Strict` + /// discipline over real lichess games. + #[test] + fn no_hindsight_streamed_known_game() { + // A tiny synthetic move-label sequence — illustrative only. Row's + // fixed `subj` field carries no move text; the semantics under test + // are purely temporal (version-indexed), so the labels are not + // stored, only used to anchor "known game" in the reader's mind. + const MOVES: [&str; 10] = [ + "e4", "e5", "Nf3", "Nc6", "Bb5", "a6", "Ba4", "Nf6", "O-O", "Be7", + ]; + let rows: Vec = (0..MOVES.len() as u64) + .map(|ply| Row::new(ply, 0, None)) + .collect(); + + // Representative "present" readers: early, mid, near-end. + for &v in &[2u64, 5, 8] { + let strict = QueryReference::at(v, 0); // rung 0 -> Strict + assert_eq!(strict.mode, EpistemicMode::Strict); + + for (ply, row) in rows.iter().enumerate() { + let ply = ply as u64; + let status = classify(row.lance_version(), row.knowable_from(), &strict); + if ply <= v { + assert_eq!( + status, + TemporalStatus::Contemporary, + "ply {ply} must be Contemporary for a present-reader at v_ref {v}" + ); + } else { + // The future is structurally flagged... + assert_eq!( + status, + TemporalStatus::Anachronistic, + "ply {ply} (future of v_ref {v}) must classify Anachronistic under Strict" + ); + // ...and refused, not silently readable, under Strict. + assert!( + !strict.mode.admits(status), + "ply {ply} must NOT be admitted under Strict at v_ref {v} — this is the no-hindsight gate" + ); + } + } + + // The hindsight-free projection: deinterlace's dispatchable view + // excludes every future ply outright — not merely flags it. + let visible = deinterlace(&rows, &strict, &NoDeps); + let visible_versions: Vec = visible.iter().map(|r| r.lance_version()).collect(); + let expected: Vec = (0..=v).collect(); + assert_eq!( + visible_versions, expected, + "Strict projection at v_ref {v} must be exactly plies 0..={v}, no future ply visible" + ); + + // Contrast: an intentional Retro peek (rung 9+) at the SAME + // v_ref sees the future too — Spoiler, admitted — showing the + // difference between structural blindness (Strict, above) and a + // deliberate horizon break (Retro), never an accidental leak. + if (v as usize) + 1 < MOVES.len() { + let retro = QueryReference::at(v, 9); + assert_eq!(retro.mode, EpistemicMode::Retro); + + let future_ply = v + 1; + let future_row = &rows[future_ply as usize]; + let retro_status = classify( + future_row.lance_version(), + future_row.knowable_from(), + &retro, + ); + assert_eq!(retro_status, TemporalStatus::Spoiler); + assert!(retro.mode.admits(retro_status)); + + let retro_visible = deinterlace(&rows, &retro, &NoDeps); + assert!( + retro_visible + .iter() + .any(|r| r.lance_version() == future_ply), + "Retro must be able to see future ply {future_ply} when explicitly requested" + ); + } + } + } } From 4e08aa30df1aa74dd2de93dd8f5751efbc224b9a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Claude Date: Sun, 12 Jul 2026 19:57:10 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 2/2] =?UTF-8?q?knowledge+board:=20chess-signature=20arc=20?= =?UTF-8?q?final=20=E2=80=94=20Turk-Polson=20convergence,=20intra/inter=20?= =?UTF-8?q?98%=20adaptive,=20needle=209.70=C3=97,=20sigker=20substrate=20i?= =?UTF-8?q?n-tree?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Co-Authored-By: Claude Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Awg6TXocHcwTtc6eGsHcdD --- .claude/board/AGENT_LOG.md | 7 ++ .claude/board/EPIPHANIES.md | 13 +++ .../stockfish-nnue-as-perturbation-cascade.md | 81 +++++++++++++++++++ 3 files changed, 101 insertions(+) diff --git a/.claude/board/AGENT_LOG.md b/.claude/board/AGENT_LOG.md index 5c1c693a..bf565996 100644 --- a/.claude/board/AGENT_LOG.md +++ b/.claude/board/AGENT_LOG.md @@ -1,3 +1,10 @@ +## 2026-07-12 — stockfish-wave3-fleet — chess-signature arc capstone: no-hindsight GREEN, needle 9.70×, personality 98% inter, Turk-Polson substrate in-tree + +- **Fleet:** Sonnet workers for D-SF-HINDSIGHT-1, PERSONALITY-1..4, BLITZ-1, SIGNATURE-1, NEEDLE-1 (CHAODA) + temporal-test worker (lance-graph-planner) + this doc applier. +- **Deliverables:** stockfish-rs `79ce78f`/`57ae59f`/`654a605`/`2c54e1a`/`64b8aa3`/`5d74b6c`/`2f73686`/`fa7beff`; lance-graph `505b989e` (`temporal.rs` no-hindsight test). +- **Outcome:** no-hindsight discipline GREEN (0/521k future accesses admitted); delayed-gratification needle rate 9.70× reputation-correct; needle-rate variance decomposition shows personality ~98% opponent-driven (inter) vs ~2% trait (intra); Lyons signature mechanism-confirmed via in-tree `sigker` — see `EPIPHANIES.md` `E-CHESS-SIGNATURE-ARC-1`. PRs pending. +- **Board:** knowledge doc `stockfish-nnue-as-perturbation-cascade.md` § "Wave 3 (final)" appended; EPIPHANIES prepended. + ## 2026-07-12 — stockfish-wave2-fleet — D-SF-TRAP-1 GREEN + holes/palette/lichess partials + TemporalPov + lichess-rs scaffold - **Fleet:** 5 Sonnet grindwork probe/scaffold builders (stockfish-rs trap/holes/piece-palette/lichess-ladder, lichess-rs scaffold) + 1 Sonnet contract worker (`TemporalPov`) + 1 Sonnet doc applier (this repo). diff --git a/.claude/board/EPIPHANIES.md b/.claude/board/EPIPHANIES.md index c380365c..ad2d04f7 100644 --- a/.claude/board/EPIPHANIES.md +++ b/.claude/board/EPIPHANIES.md @@ -1,3 +1,16 @@ +## 2026-07-12 — E-CHESS-SIGNATURE-ARC-1 — personality is the opponent-response function (inter 98% / intra 2%); Turk-Polson substrate already in-tree + +**Status:** MEASURED (stockfish-rs `79ce78f`/`57ae59f`/`654a605`/`2c54e1a`/`64b8aa3`/`5d74b6c`/`2f73686`/`fa7beff`; lance-graph `505b989e`). +**Arc:** reconstructed Turk & Polson "Chess Signatures of Play" (arXiv 2606.18544, June 2026) from first principles, then found its full math substrate already in-tree. +**Capstone finding (D-SF-NEEDLE-1):** needle-rate variance decomposition — between-player (trait) 0.021 vs player×opponent (adaptation) 0.979 → personality is **~98% INTER (adaptive), not INTRA (trait)**. Karpov-Kasparov head-to-head (66 mutual games, opponent fixed): +1.26 needles/100 — a modest trait residual survives. Unifies the personality arc with the opponent-modeling arc (D-SF-OPPONENT-1/2/3): same object. +**Why every averaged probe failed (~1.1-1.3×):** (a) needle-in-haystack SNR (a ~1% signature can't be lifted by a mean at ~5k moves/player); (b) trait-model misspecification on a 98%-adaptive process. +**The one positive:** delayed-gratification (Belohnungsaufschub) sacrifice RATE 9.70× reputation-correct — a NAMED rare event, whereas CHAODA generic anomaly over the same features stayed at chance (1.19×). Style is in the specific tail event, not statistical outliers, not the mean. +**Signature (D-SF-SIGNATURE-1):** consumed in-tree `sigker`; signature > aggregate and Lévy-interaction > level (both directions per the paper); magnitude ~1.3-1.4× (gap = missing clock channel / deep-search accuracy / depth). +**No-hindsight (GREEN):** D-SF-HINDSIGHT-1 fixed RUNG-1 via `TemporalPov` Strict-gating (0/521k future accesses) + real-Result oracle; convergence 0.631→0.818. +**Impulsivity refuted:** D-SF-BLITZ-1 — classical most identifiable (length/strength-confounded). +**Meta:** `sigker` (Chen-Lyons signature + kernel), `jc/hambly_lyons` (uniqueness certificate), `temporal.rs` (stream), CLAM/CHAODA (anomaly) = Turk-Polson's pipeline, composable from in-tree parts. Use `signature_kernel` not `signature_kernel_pde` (jc-flagged bug). +**Cross-ref:** knowledge doc § "Wave 3 (final)"; E-SF-AWARENESS-OPPONENT-ARC-1, E-SF-TRAP-LURE-GREEN-1, E-TEMPORAL-NO-HINDSIGHT-1. + ## 2026-07-12 — E-TEMPORAL-NO-HINDSIGHT-1 — temporal.rs's Spoiler/Anachronistic classification IS the no-hindsight gate, demonstrated on a streamed known-game version series **Status:** MEASURED (test, `crates/lance-graph-planner/src/temporal.rs::tests::no_hindsight_streamed_known_game`, 16/16 green in `temporal::tests`). diff --git a/.claude/knowledge/stockfish-nnue-as-perturbation-cascade.md b/.claude/knowledge/stockfish-nnue-as-perturbation-cascade.md index 30122d78..5d63bc71 100644 --- a/.claude/knowledge/stockfish-nnue-as-perturbation-cascade.md +++ b/.claude/knowledge/stockfish-nnue-as-perturbation-cascade.md @@ -560,3 +560,84 @@ wide-angle (perturbation-field read) and temporal tele (k-ply rollout read), swi on the contact/wedge signal, gated on beating both pure reads at predicting strong play. Plus the lichess iteration knobs above, the piece-palette + edges follow-up, and traps-on-INFERRED-models (chains behind a working style inference). + +## Wave 3 (final): the chess-signature arc — Turk-Polson convergence, intra vs inter, the needle + +Closing wave of the chess-as-substrate program. Operator-steered from first principles to +a formal result: **Turk & Polson, "Chess Signatures of Play" (arXiv 2606.18544, June 2026)** — +game-as-multivariate-path, the Lyons signature transform, style identifiable from the expected +signature up to tree-like equivalence (Hambly-Lyons 2010), discriminating info in the Lévy +areas (accuracy×complexity interaction), cheating detection as an anytime-valid signature-kernel +conformance test. All probes: stockfish-rs examples, net/data-gated, deterministic, exit-0. + +**The no-hindsight discipline (GREEN).** D-SF-HINDSIGHT-1 (stockfish `79ce78f`) streams real +decisive lichess games as a version series and reads them under `TemporalPov::at(v, Strict)` — +0/521,630 future-ply accesses admitted (causal window enforced by `VersionRange::contains`, not +discipline). It FIXES D-SF-RUNG-1's leaked-outcome oracle (real game Result replaces NNUE-final-eval): +present-rung agreement rises monotonically toward the settled result (far 0.631 → end 0.818), the +honest convergence RUNG-1 could not produce. Companion: lance-graph-planner `temporal.rs` +no-hindsight test (`505b989e`, `E-TEMPORAL-NO-HINDSIGHT-1`) — a Strict reader classifies future +plies `Anachronistic` and refuses them (Spoiler is reserved for a Retro reader's deliberate peek). + +**The personality question — six probes, one honest answer.** "Can we measure a player's style +(Carlsen/Karpov/Kasparov/Tal, 120 games/player, pgnmentor)?" Every AVERAGED measure converged at +~1.1-1.3× chance: + +| probe | measure | result | +|---|---|---| +| D-SF-PERSONALITY-1 (`57ae59f`) | mean move-delta vs 1-ply rational | 1.18× | +| D-SF-PERSONALITY-2 (`654a605`) | anomaly-corrected delta, ICC(1) | 1.17× (0/3 gates) | +| D-SF-PERSONALITY-3 (`2c54e1a`) | intrinsic NNUE-fingerprint readout | 1.28× (no confound) | +| D-SF-PERSONALITY-4 Arm A (`64b8aa3`) | comfort-zone situation MEAN | 1.1× | +| D-SF-NEEDLE-1 CHAODA (`fa7beff`) | manifold-anomaly over deviation feats | 1.19× | +| D-SF-SIGNATURE-1 (`2f73686`) | Lyons path-signature (Turk-Polson) | 1.31× / 1.39× kernel-MMD | + +Two compounding reasons, BOTH measured: (a) **needle-in-haystack SNR** — a signature move is ~1% +of decisions; a mean estimator's SNR is bounded by the signature rate, so at ~5k moves/player the +needle sits inside the noise band (would need ~100× the games to lift it out). (b) **trait-vs-adaptive +misspecification** — see intra/inter below. + +**The one POSITIVE — the needle is a NAMED event, not a statistical outlier.** D-SF-PERSONALITY-4 +Arm B: the **delayed-gratification (Belohnungsaufschub) sacrifice rate** separated players **9.70×**, +reputation-correct (Tal 1.197/100dec ≫ Karpov 0.123), on events that are 0.12-1.20% of decisions — +material given for LONG-term positional comp, which engines rarely do (maximally diagnostic). CRUCIAL +contrast: CHAODA generic anomaly detection over the SAME deviation features stayed at chance (1.19×) — +so the signal is NOT "statistically anomalous move," it is a **specific, domain-meaningful rare event**. +Reputation shows up in the tail, not the mean. + +**INTRA vs INTER — the capstone finding.** D-SF-NEEDLE-1 variance decomposition on needle rate over +258 player×opponent cells (900-game corpus): SSB (between-player, TRAIT) = **0.021**, SSW +(player×opponent, ADAPTATION) = **0.979**, ratio 0.021 — needle rate is **~98% opponent-driven**. +Personality is overwhelmingly INTER (adaptive), not INTRA (a fixed trait). Karpov-Kasparov head-to-head +control (66 mutual games, opponent+era fixed): Karpov 5.55 vs Kasparov 4.29 needles/100 (+1.26) — a +real but modest trait signal survives once the opponent is held constant, exactly as an inter-dominant +world predicts. **This unifies the two halves of the program: personality IS the opponent-response +function — the personality arc and the opponent-modeling arc (D-SF-OPPONENT-1/2/3) are the same object.** + +**Impulsivity refuted.** D-SF-BLITZ-1 (`5d74b6c`, 115k lichess games): classical is the MOST +identifiable time control (3.43×/3.85×), not the least — opposite to "faster play reveals the habitual +self." Confounded by game-length (longer games → tighter fingerprint) and rating heterogeneity +(strength, not style); an honest refutation of the specific gradient, not a clean disproof. The +signature (reparametrization/length-invariant) is the tool that sidesteps this confound. + +**Signature: mechanism-confirmed, magnitude-honest.** D-SF-SIGNATURE-1 consumed the workspace's OWN +certified `sigker` (not a hand-roll): `signature_truncated(path, 2)` + `signature_kernel_normalized` +(MMD). All signature readouts (1.11-1.44×) BEAT the aggregate baselines, and Lévy-areas-only (1.25×) +beat level-1-only (1.11×) — both DIRECTIONS as Turk-Polson predict. Absolute magnitude stayed ~1.3-1.4× +because our setup lacks the paper's ingredients: no clock channel (OTB PGN), 1-ply-NNUE accuracy (not +deep-search), depth-2, 4 players. Mechanism validated; magnitude gap fully attributable to listable +missing ingredients. + +**The meta-finding.** The workspace already contained Turk-Polson's entire mathematical substrate, +built independently: **`sigker`** (Chen-Lyons `signature_truncated` / `log_signature_truncated` / +`signature_kernel[_normalized]`, zero-dep), **`jc/hambly_lyons.rs`** (pillar #11 — the tree-like- +equivalence uniqueness certificate the paper's identifiability rests on), **`temporal.rs`** (the stream), +**ndarray CLAM/CHAODA** (the anomaly layer). The paper's pipeline (path → signature → kernel two-sample / +conformance) is composable from in-tree parts today. Caveat: use `signature_kernel` (tensor-algebra, +correct), NOT `signature_kernel_pde` (documented divergence from the true I₀ kernel; jc flags it). + +**Net honest verdict of the arc:** style at the statistical-mass level is (1) a ~1% needle averaging +cannot see, (2) a specific named rare event (delayed-grat sacrifice) when detected directly, and (3) +~98% adaptive (opponent-driven), not a fixed trait — with a modest trait residual surviving under +opponent control. The Lyons signature is the right featurization (mechanism confirmed) and its +substrate already lives in-tree.