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title Syllabus for "Spatial modelling of distance sampling data"
author David L Miller and Eric Rexstad

Abstract

This document defines the syllabus for the "Spatial modelling of distance sampling data" course. I've attempted to separate the lectures into "chunks" that are 45 minutes long, followed by a practical that takes up a similar amount of time (I think it's important that we leave plenty of time to explore the data, get comfortable with Arc/R and so on).

Notes

  • Perhaps worth having the confirmed participants go through a questionnaire beforehand to see what the level of the audience is.
  • Data set names (in monospace font after reference) relate to data that is freely available and shipped with R packages.
  • Have folks log into mozpad to post questions and answer questionnaires anonymously.

Timetable


Day/Time Objective 0900-1030 1045-1215 1345-1515 1530-1700


Sunday Learn R Panic Panic R workshop R workshop

Monday Fit detection function, DS covariates, variance, Intro to DS via current Simulation engine Simulation engine estimate abundance with model checking/selection vignettes. Covars, Horvitz-Thompson. variance. model selection, variance Simulation engine.

Tuesday Fit and check a density surface model (DSM) What is a DSM? Intro to generalized Practical GAM/DSM Adding covariates: why, additive models (GAMs) how, what? Intro to environmental data

Wednesday Add environmental Practical covariates to the model Multiple smooths, model Fit and check multismooth Predictions & variance Catch-up period Produce maps of predicted selection DSMs theory and in practice abundance

Thursday Advanced topics/mrds mrds Practical Advanced DSM topics mrds

Friday Research talks? Consultancy?

Distance sampling topics

Introduction to distance sampling/detection functions

  • Line transect sampling
    • General sampling setup
    • Exact distances vs. grouped/binned distances
    • Assumptions
  • Detection functions
    • What are the options?
    • What do they look like?
  • Fitting detection functions
    • Brief R examples
    • Explanation of general syntax
    • Interpreting summary

Practical: fitting detection functions in R

  • Investigating the data, basic EDA in R
  • Fitting a detection functions
  • Interpreting summary results
  • Some setup for covariate models (plot group size etc against $\hat{p}$)

Evaluating detection functions

  • Model checking/selection
    • Goodness-of-fit
    • AIC
    • Detection function criteria
      • Assumptions
      • Convergence
  • Variance estimation
    • Where does uncertainty come from? (Conceptually)
    • Effects of survey design

Practical: model checking in R

  • Finding the AIC, GoF test results
  • Q-Q plotting

Further detection function modelling

  • Adding covariates
    • When should we include covariates?
    • Possible covariates (what data to collect)
    • Group size issues
  • What are detection functions good for?
    • Estimating probability of detection
    • Simple Horvitz-Thompson ideas -- in the limit, many strata leads to DSM

Practical: Covariates and abundance

  • Fitting covariate models
    • Model checking from above, revisited
  • Abundance estimation
    • Stratification
    • Variance estimation

Spatial modelling

What is density surface modelling?

  • Survey/data setup
    • What is a segment?
    • Useful conventions for data management
    • Offsets
  • Count as response
    • Calculation of offset
    • Model formulation
  • Estimated abundance as response
    • Calculation of response/offset
    • Model formulation
  • Relative merits of each approach
    • Segment-level observation covariates

Introduction to Generalized Additive Models

  • What is a GAM?
  • Smoothers
    • Penalties and bases
    • What do they look like?
    • Uni- vs. multivariate smoothers
  • Response distributions
    • Count distributions zoo
  • How do we fit GAMs?
    • Linear model vs. interpolation (what is a smoothing parameter?)
    • Basis complexity and relation to penalty
    • 5 minute guide to GCV/REML (conceptual)
  • Model checking/discrimination/criticism
    • Q-Q plots
    • Residuals
    • AIC/deviance/$R^2$/REML score/GCV score

Practical: First look at GAMs

  • Syntax-maths/concepts translation
  • Simple (perhaps non-distance sampling) examples
    • 1D smooths
    • 2D smooths
  • Emphasis on plotting smooths, looking at model checking plots
  • Getting data into R
  • Fitting basic models with just spatial covariates
  • Model checking as covered above

Day-to-day use of DSM

  • Using environmental covariates
    • Appropriate bases for particular measurements
    • Extra shrinkage/penalty ideas
  • Response distributions
    • Using Tweedie and negative binomial distributions
  • Model selection
    • Follow up on deviance/AIC/REML score ideas

Practical: Practical use of DSM

  • Fitting many models with different covariates
  • Looking at check plot output
  • Which summaries to look at -- selection criteria

What can I do with my fitted DSM?

  • Prediction
    • What are predictions? (Scale and temporal relevance)
    • Predictions over a grid vs for an area
    • Offsets
  • Variance estimation of predictions
    • Where does uncertainty come from?
    • Per cell vs. overall uncertainty
  • Presenting predictions and their uncertainties

Practical: Using DSM objects

  • Using predict
    • Making prediction grid
    • Plotting predictions
    • "Overall" (whole study area) abundance
  • Variance estimation
    • Plotting uncertainty (with effort)
    • Overall uncertainty

Advanced topics in density surface modelling

This list is very rough, may depend on what participants are interested in. At this point these are possible topics not a definitive programme.

One option is to review the landscape of what's going on and offer only a couple of slides on each with references so people know where to go.

  • Spatial autocorrelation
    • Checking
    • Strategies for accounting for it
  • Strange shaped study areas
    • soap film smoothing
  • $g(0)$ problems
    • "Perception bias" -- double observer methods, mark-recapture distance sampling
    • "Availability bias" -- fixed correction, hidden Markov models etc
  • Combining surveys
    • Different platforms at similar times
    • Geographical/temporal "patching" (Jason)
  • Temporal trends
    • Movement/displacement