[Test Result] User Path Validation — Good vs Bad Experience Match

[KI7MT]

Test Type

Test-6 & Test-7: User-Defined Path Validation

Test-6: My Good Path

• Path: DN46 > IO91 (Montana to England), 20m
• Conditions: SFI 150, Kp 2, 14:00 UTC, June
• Predicted: -20.3 dB, WSPR/FT8 OPEN
• Matches experience: ✅ Yes — worked G on 20m FT8 many times

Test-7: My Bad Path

• Path: DN46 > QF22 (Montana to Melbourne), 160m
• Conditions: SFI 80, Kp 5, 04:00 UTC, January
• Predicted: -28.3 dB, all modes closed
• Matches experience: ✅ Yes — never worked VK on 160m

System Info

Model	v20 (Production)
Device	mps
ionis-validate	v0.2.3

Analysis

Model predictions align with 15+ years of operating experience:

• Good path: 20m transatlantic during afternoon UTC is reliable, model confirms
• Bad path: 160m long-path to VK from W7 is essentially impossible, model correctly predicts closure
• Both predictions validate against real-world QSO history

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ionis-validate v0.2.3