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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>Risk 1 - Expert Severity Assessments</title>
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com">
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.gstatic.com" crossorigin>
<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Figtree:wght@300;400;500;600;700&display=swap" rel="stylesheet">
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/chart.js@4.4.0/dist/chart.umd.min.js"></script>
<style>
body {
font-family: 'Figtree', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, sans-serif;
max-width: 1200px;
margin: 0 auto;
padding: 5px;
background: white;
}
.container {
background: white;
border-radius: 8px;
border: 2px solid #000;
padding: 0;
box-shadow: 0 2px 8px rgba(0,0,0,0.1);
overflow: hidden;
}
.banner {
background: #000;
color: white;
padding: 8px 12px;
font-size: 15px;
font-weight: 600;
text-align: center;
}
.chart-content {
padding: 10px 12px;
}
h1 {
color: #333;
margin-bottom: 10px;
}
.subtitle {
color: #666;
margin-bottom: 30px;
font-size: 14px;
}
.chart-container {
position: relative;
height: 280px;
margin-top: 0px;
}
canvas {
-webkit-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased;
-moz-osx-font-smoothing: grayscale;
}
#severityChart {
image-rendering: -webkit-optimize-contrast;
image-rendering: auto;
}
.legend {
margin-top: 12px;
padding: 6px 8px;
background: white;
border-radius: 4px;
display: flex;
justify-content: center;
gap: 12px;
flex-wrap: wrap;
}
.legend-item {
display: flex;
align-items: center;
gap: 6px;
font-size: 11px;
font-weight: 600;
}
.legend-box {
width: 24px;
height: 14px;
border-radius: 2px;
}
.legend-box-mean {
background: white;
border: 1px solid #333;
border-radius: 3px;
padding: 2px 6px;
font-size: 11px;
font-weight: bold;
color: #333;
font-family: 'Figtree', sans-serif;
}
.legend-line {
width: 24px;
height: 3px;
border-radius: 1px;
}
.controls {
margin-bottom: 8px;
padding: 6px 8px;
background: white;
border-radius: 4px;
display: flex;
align-items: center;
gap: 10px;
flex-wrap: wrap;
}
.control-group {
display: flex;
align-items: center;
gap: 10px;
}
.toggle-button {
background: transparent;
color: #a32035;
border: none;
padding: 6px 0px;
border-radius: 0px;
font-family: 'Figtree', sans-serif;
font-size: 12px;
font-weight: 600;
cursor: pointer;
transition: all 0.3s;
text-decoration: underline;
text-decoration-color: #a32035;
text-decoration-thickness: 2px;
text-underline-offset: 3px;
}
.toggle-button:hover {
color: #8a1b2d;
text-decoration-color: #8a1b2d;
}
.toggle-button.inactive {
text-decoration-color: #6b7280;
color: #6b7280;
}
.toggle-button.inactive:hover {
color: #4b5563;
text-decoration-color: #4b5563;
}
.mode-selector {
display: flex;
gap: 0;
border: 2px solid #a32035;
border-radius: 4px;
overflow: hidden;
}
.mode-button {
background: white;
color: #a32035;
border: none;
padding: 6px 12px;
font-family: 'Figtree', sans-serif;
font-size: 12px;
font-weight: 600;
cursor: pointer;
transition: all 0.3s;
border-right: 1px solid #a32035;
}
.mode-button:last-child {
border-right: none;
}
.mode-button.active {
background: #a32035;
color: white;
}
.mode-button:hover:not(.active) {
background: #fef2f2;
}
.severity-labels {
display: flex;
margin-top: -8px;
margin-bottom: 10px;
padding-left: 10px;
padding-right: 30px;
position: relative;
width: calc(100% - 40px);
}
.severity-labels.exceedance-mode {
margin-bottom: 24px;
}
.severity-label {
font-size: 14px;
font-weight: bold;
white-space: nowrap;
position: absolute;
text-align: center;
}
.severity-label:nth-child(1) { left: 8%; transform: translateX(0%); }
.severity-label:nth-child(2) { left: 32%; transform: translateX(-50%); }
.severity-label:nth-child(3) { left: 52%; transform: translateX(-50%); }
.severity-label:nth-child(4) { left: 70%; transform: translateX(-50%); }
.severity-label:nth-child(5) { left: 95%; transform: translateX(-100%); }
.or-worse {
font-size: 11px;
font-weight: normal;
display: none;
margin-top: 2px;
}
.severity-labels.exceedance-mode .or-worse {
display: block;
}
.severity-labels.exceedance-mode .severity-label:nth-child(5) .or-worse {
display: none;
}
.expert-tooltip {
position: absolute;
background: white;
border: 2px solid #000;
border-radius: 4px;
padding: 10px;
font-size: 12px;
pointer-events: none;
z-index: 1000;
display: none;
box-shadow: 0 2px 8px rgba(0,0,0,0.2);
}
.expert-tooltip.visible {
display: block;
}
.expert-tooltip-title {
font-weight: 600;
margin-bottom: 5px;
}
.expert-tooltip-item {
margin: 3px 0;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
<div class="container">
<div class="banner">
7.1 AI pursuing its own goals in conflict with human goals or values / Pragmatic mitigations
</div>
<div class="chart-content">
<div class="controls">
<div class="control-group">
<div class="mode-selector">
<button id="modeExact" class="mode-button active">Individual Probabilities</button>
<button id="modeExceedance" class="mode-button">Cumulative Probabilities</button>
</div>
</div>
<div class="control-group">
<button id="toggleExperts" class="toggle-button inactive">▶ Show Individual Expert Estimates</button>
</div>
</div>
<div class="chart-container">
<canvas id="severityChart"></canvas>
<div id="expertTooltip" class="expert-tooltip"></div>
</div>
<div class="severity-labels">
<div class="severity-label" style="color: #28a745;">
<div>Negligible harm</div>
<div class="or-worse">(or worse)</div>
</div>
<div class="severity-label" style="color: #6c757d;">
<div>Minor harm</div>
<div class="or-worse">(or worse)</div>
</div>
<div class="severity-label" style="color: #ffc107;">
<div>Substantial harm</div>
<div class="or-worse">(or worse)</div>
</div>
<div class="severity-label" style="color: #fd7e14;">
<div>Severe harm</div>
<div class="or-worse">(or worse)</div>
</div>
<div class="severity-label" style="color: #dc3545;">
<div>Catastrophic harm</div>
<div class="or-worse">(or worse)</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="legend">
<div class="legend-item">
<div class="legend-box-mean">__%</div>
<span>is mean likelihood</span>
</div>
<div class="legend-item">
<div class="legend-line" style="background: rgba(100, 149, 237, 0.7); height: 3px;"></div>
<span>90% interval (5th-95th percentile)</span>
</div>
<div class="legend-item">
<div class="legend-line" style="background: rgba(25, 25, 112, 0.85); height: 4px;"></div>
<span>50% interval (25th-75th percentile)</span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<script>
// Data extracted from risk_number = 1, scenario = BAU
const expertData = [
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{
"sev": 4,
"prob": 45.0
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