diff --git a/src/main/java/com/whereyouad/WhereYouAd/domains/advertisement/persistence/repository/MetricFactRepository.java b/src/main/java/com/whereyouad/WhereYouAd/domains/advertisement/persistence/repository/MetricFactRepository.java
index 5b59b2b4..a4d18310 100644
--- a/src/main/java/com/whereyouad/WhereYouAd/domains/advertisement/persistence/repository/MetricFactRepository.java
+++ b/src/main/java/com/whereyouad/WhereYouAd/domains/advertisement/persistence/repository/MetricFactRepository.java
@@ -60,6 +60,26 @@ MetricSumProjection findMetricsSumByOrgIdAndDateRange(
             @Param("status") Status status
             );
 
+    // orgId에 속한 모든 프로젝트의 지표중 해당 MetricFact 가 속한 AdCampaign 지표를 지정된 기간 범위 합산 (status 고려 x)
+    @Query("SELECT " +
+            "COALESCE(SUM(m.impressions), 0) AS totalImpressions, " +
+            "COALESCE(SUM(m.clicks), 0) AS totalClicks, " +
+            "COALESCE(SUM(m.conversions), 0) AS totalConversions, " +
+            "COALESCE(SUM(m.spend), 0) AS totalSpend, " +
+            "COALESCE(SUM(m.revenue), 0) AS totalRevenue " +
+            "FROM MetricFact m " +
+            "JOIN m.project p " +
+            "WHERE p.organization.id = :orgId " +
+            "AND p.organization.status = :orgStatus " +
+            "AND m.timeBucket >= :startDate AND m.timeBucket < :endDate "
+    )
+    MetricSumProjection findMetricsSumByOrgIdAndDateRange(
+            @Param("orgId") Long orgId,
+            @Param("startDate") LocalDateTime startDate,
+            @Param("endDate") LocalDateTime endDate,
+            @Param("orgStatus") OrgStatus orgStatus
+    );
+
     //orgId 와 provider 가 일치하고 해당 MetricFact 가 속한 AdCampaign 의 status 가 ON_GOING 인 지표에 대해 지정된 기간 범위 합산
     @Query("SELECT " +
             "COALESCE(SUM(m.impressions), 0) AS totalImpressions, " +
diff --git a/src/main/java/com/whereyouad/WhereYouAd/domains/timeline/domain/service/TimelineServiceImpl.java b/src/main/java/com/whereyouad/WhereYouAd/domains/timeline/domain/service/TimelineServiceImpl.java
index e6907f23..4228b1b7 100644
--- a/src/main/java/com/whereyouad/WhereYouAd/domains/timeline/domain/service/TimelineServiceImpl.java
+++ b/src/main/java/com/whereyouad/WhereYouAd/domains/timeline/domain/service/TimelineServiceImpl.java
@@ -1,6 +1,8 @@
 package com.whereyouad.WhereYouAd.domains.timeline.domain.service;
 
+import com.whereyouad.WhereYouAd.domains.advertisement.persistence.repository.projection.MetricSumProjection;
 import com.whereyouad.WhereYouAd.domains.organization.domain.constant.OrgRole;
+import com.whereyouad.WhereYouAd.domains.organization.domain.constant.OrgStatus;
 import com.whereyouad.WhereYouAd.domains.organization.exception.code.OrgErrorCode;
 import com.whereyouad.WhereYouAd.domains.organization.exception.handler.OrgHandler;
 import com.whereyouad.WhereYouAd.domains.organization.persistence.entity.OrgMember;
@@ -18,6 +20,7 @@
 import com.whereyouad.WhereYouAd.domains.timeline.exception.code.TimelineErrorCode;
 import com.whereyouad.WhereYouAd.domains.timeline.persistence.entity.Timeline;
 import com.whereyouad.WhereYouAd.domains.advertisement.domain.constant.Grain;
+import com.whereyouad.WhereYouAd.domains.advertisement.domain.constant.Status;
 import com.whereyouad.WhereYouAd.domains.advertisement.persistence.entity.MetricFact;
 import com.whereyouad.WhereYouAd.domains.advertisement.persistence.repository.MetricFactRepository;
 import com.whereyouad.WhereYouAd.domains.timeline.persistence.repository.TimelineRepository;
@@ -66,21 +69,33 @@ public TimelineResponse.CreateResponseDTO createTimeline(Long userId, Long orgId
         // 비교 기준 날짜(지난 주, 지난 달, 지난 년도와 비교)
         ComparisonDateRange comparisonDates = calculateComparisonDates(dto.startDate(), dto.endDate(), dto.comparisonPeriodType());
 
-        // 비교 기간에 성과 데이터가 없으면 타임라인 생성 불가
-        boolean hasComparisonData = metricFactRepository.existsByTimeBucketBetweenAndOrg(
+        // 비교 기간 성과 합계 조회 (Projection 사용)
+        MetricSumProjection pastFacts = metricFactRepository.findMetricsSumByOrgIdAndDateRange(
+                orgId,
                 comparisonDates.start().atStartOfDay(),
-                comparisonDates.end().atTime(LocalTime.MAX),
-                orgId
+                comparisonDates.end().plusDays(1).atStartOfDay(),
+                OrgStatus.ACTIVE
         );
-        if (!hasComparisonData) {
+
+        // 비교 기간에 성과 데이터가 없거나 모두 0이면 타임라인 생성 불가
+        if (isProjectionEmpty(pastFacts)) {
             throw new TimelineException(TimelineErrorCode.TIMELINE_NO_COMPARISON_DATA);
         }
 
+        // 현재 기간 성과 합계 조회 (Projection 사용)
+        MetricSumProjection currentFacts = metricFactRepository.findMetricsSumByOrgIdAndDateRange(
+                orgId,
+                dto.startDate().atStartOfDay(),
+                dto.endDate().plusDays(1).atStartOfDay(),
+                OrgStatus.ACTIVE,
+                Status.ON_GOING
+        );
+
         // 입력받은 DTO를 타임라인 엔티티로 변환
         Timeline timeline = TimelineConverter.toTimeline(dto, organization, userId, comparisonDates.start(), comparisonDates.end());
 
-        // PerformanceStatus 계산 및 판별 로직 호출 및 저장
-        PerformanceStatus status = timelineUtil.calculatePerformanceStatus(timeline);
+        // 성과 상태 - PerformanceStatus 계산 및 판별 로직 호출 및 저장 (초안)
+        PerformanceStatus status = timelineUtil.calculatePerformanceStatus(timeline, currentFacts, pastFacts);
         timeline.updatePerformanceStatus(status);
 
         // 엔티티 저장 및 반환
@@ -117,16 +132,28 @@ public TimelineResponse.CreateResponseDTO updateTimeline(Long userId, Long orgId
         // 6. 비교 기준 날짜 재계산
         ComparisonDateRange comparisonDates = calculateComparisonDates(dto.startDate(), dto.endDate(), dto.comparisonPeriodType());
 
-        // 7. 비교 기간 성과 데이터 존재 검증
-        boolean hasComparisonData = metricFactRepository.existsByTimeBucketBetweenAndOrg(
+        // 7. 비교 기간 성과 합계 조회 (Projection 사용)
+        MetricSumProjection pastFacts = metricFactRepository.findMetricsSumByOrgIdAndDateRange(
+                orgId,
                 comparisonDates.start().atStartOfDay(),
-                comparisonDates.end().atTime(LocalTime.MAX),
-                orgId
+                comparisonDates.end().plusDays(1).atStartOfDay(),
+                OrgStatus.ACTIVE
         );
-        if (!hasComparisonData) {
+
+        // 비교 기간에 성과 데이터가 없거나 모두 0이면 예외 처리
+        if (isProjectionEmpty(pastFacts)) {
             throw new TimelineException(TimelineErrorCode.TIMELINE_NO_COMPARISON_DATA);
         }
 
+        // 현재 기간 성과 합계 조회
+        MetricSumProjection currentFacts = metricFactRepository.findMetricsSumByOrgIdAndDateRange(
+                orgId,
+                dto.startDate().atStartOfDay(),
+                dto.endDate().plusDays(1).atStartOfDay(),
+                OrgStatus.ACTIVE,
+                Status.ON_GOING
+        );
+
         // 8. 성과 리스트 -> boolean 플래그 변환
         boolean useClick = dto.metrics().contains(MetricType.CLICK);
         boolean useConversion = dto.metrics().contains(MetricType.CONVERSION);
@@ -141,7 +168,7 @@ public TimelineResponse.CreateResponseDTO updateTimeline(Long userId, Long orgId
         timeline.updateSummary(null);
 
         // 10. PerformanceStatus 재계산
-        PerformanceStatus status = timelineUtil.calculatePerformanceStatus(timeline);
+        PerformanceStatus status = timelineUtil.calculatePerformanceStatus(timeline, currentFacts, pastFacts);
         timeline.updatePerformanceStatus(status);
 
         // 11. 변환 후 반환
@@ -351,4 +378,14 @@ private ComparisonDateRange calculateComparisonDates(LocalDate startDate, LocalD
             case LAST_YEAR -> new ComparisonDateRange(startDate.minusYears(1), endDate.minusYears(1));
         };
     }
+
+    // Projection 결과가 비어있는지(또는 모든 수치가 0인지) 확인하는 헬퍼 메서드
+    private boolean isProjectionEmpty(MetricSumProjection projection) {
+        if (projection == null) return true;
+        return (projection.getTotalImpressions() == null || projection.getTotalImpressions() == 0L) &&
+               (projection.getTotalClicks() == null || projection.getTotalClicks() == 0L) &&
+               (projection.getTotalConversions() == null || projection.getTotalConversions() == 0L) &&
+               (projection.getTotalSpend() == null || projection.getTotalSpend().compareTo(BigDecimal.ZERO) == 0) &&
+               (projection.getTotalRevenue() == null || projection.getTotalRevenue().compareTo(BigDecimal.ZERO) == 0);
+    }
 }
diff --git a/src/main/java/com/whereyouad/WhereYouAd/domains/timeline/domain/util/TimelineUtil.java b/src/main/java/com/whereyouad/WhereYouAd/domains/timeline/domain/util/TimelineUtil.java
index 1f9af945..555c1c1a 100644
--- a/src/main/java/com/whereyouad/WhereYouAd/domains/timeline/domain/util/TimelineUtil.java
+++ b/src/main/java/com/whereyouad/WhereYouAd/domains/timeline/domain/util/TimelineUtil.java
@@ -1,13 +1,90 @@
 package com.whereyouad.WhereYouAd.domains.timeline.domain.util;
 
+import com.whereyouad.WhereYouAd.domains.advertisement.persistence.repository.projection.MetricSumProjection;
 import com.whereyouad.WhereYouAd.domains.timeline.domain.constant.PerformanceStatus;
 import com.whereyouad.WhereYouAd.domains.timeline.persistence.entity.Timeline;
 import org.springframework.stereotype.Component;
 
+import java.math.BigDecimal;
+import java.math.RoundingMode;
+
 @Component
 public class TimelineUtil {
-    // TODO: PerformanceStatus 판별 로직 추가
-    public PerformanceStatus calculatePerformanceStatus(Timeline timeline) {
-        return null;
+
+    // 성과 상태 판별 로직 초안
+    public PerformanceStatus calculatePerformanceStatus(Timeline timeline, MetricSumProjection currentFacts, MetricSumProjection pastFacts) {
+        
+        // 데이터가 아예 없는 경우 방어 로직 (Projection은 SUM이 없으면 0을 반환하도록 COALESCE 되어있음)
+        if (currentFacts == null || pastFacts == null) {
+            return PerformanceStatus.ON_TRACK;
+        }
+
+        double totalRate = 0.0;
+        int activeMetricCount = 0;
+
+        // 1. 클릭수 비교
+        if (timeline.isUseClick()) {
+            long currentClicks = currentFacts.getTotalClicks() != null ? currentFacts.getTotalClicks() : 0L;
+            long pastClicks = pastFacts.getTotalClicks() != null ? pastFacts.getTotalClicks() : 0L;
+            
+            if (pastClicks > 0) {
+                totalRate += (double) currentClicks / pastClicks;
+                activeMetricCount++;
+            }
+        }
+
+        // 2. 전환수 비교
+        if (timeline.isUseConversion()) {
+            long currentConv = currentFacts.getTotalConversions() != null ? currentFacts.getTotalConversions() : 0L;
+            long pastConv = pastFacts.getTotalConversions() != null ? pastFacts.getTotalConversions() : 0L;
+            
+            if (pastConv > 0) {
+                totalRate += (double) currentConv / pastConv;
+                activeMetricCount++;
+            }
+        }
+
+        // 3. 노출수 비교
+        if (timeline.isUseImpression()) {
+            long currentImp = currentFacts.getTotalImpressions() != null ? currentFacts.getTotalImpressions() : 0L;
+            long pastImp = pastFacts.getTotalImpressions() != null ? pastFacts.getTotalImpressions() : 0L;
+            
+            if (pastImp > 0) {
+                totalRate += (double) currentImp / pastImp;
+                activeMetricCount++;
+            }
+        }
+
+        // 4. ROAS 비교
+        if (timeline.isUseRoas()) {
+            BigDecimal currentSpend = currentFacts.getTotalSpend() != null ? currentFacts.getTotalSpend() : BigDecimal.ZERO;
+            BigDecimal currentRev = currentFacts.getTotalRevenue() != null ? currentFacts.getTotalRevenue() : BigDecimal.ZERO;
+            BigDecimal currentRoas = currentSpend.compareTo(BigDecimal.ZERO) > 0 ? currentRev.divide(currentSpend, 4, RoundingMode.HALF_UP) : BigDecimal.ZERO;
+
+            BigDecimal pastSpend = pastFacts.getTotalSpend() != null ? pastFacts.getTotalSpend() : BigDecimal.ZERO;
+            BigDecimal pastRev = pastFacts.getTotalRevenue() != null ? pastFacts.getTotalRevenue() : BigDecimal.ZERO;
+            BigDecimal pastRoas = pastSpend.compareTo(BigDecimal.ZERO) > 0 ? pastRev.divide(pastSpend, 4, RoundingMode.HALF_UP) : BigDecimal.ZERO;
+
+            if (pastRoas.compareTo(BigDecimal.ZERO) > 0) {
+                totalRate += currentRoas.divide(pastRoas, 4, RoundingMode.HALF_UP).doubleValue();
+                activeMetricCount++;
+            }
+        }
+
+        // 비교할 유효 지표가 없는 경우
+        if (activeMetricCount == 0) {
+            return PerformanceStatus.ON_TRACK;
+        }
+
+        double avgRate = totalRate / activeMetricCount;
+
+        // 초안: 10% 이상 상승하면 ABOVE_AVG, 10% 이상 하락하면 UNDERPERFORM, 그 외 ON_TRACK
+        if (avgRate >= 1.1) {
+            return PerformanceStatus.ABOVE_AVG;
+        } else if (avgRate <= 0.9) {
+            return PerformanceStatus.UNDERPERFORM;
+        } else {
+            return PerformanceStatus.ON_TRACK;
+        }
     }
 }