diff --git a/.github/workflows/model-quality.yml b/.github/workflows/model-quality.yml
index d5650ca3..a7980040 100644
--- a/.github/workflows/model-quality.yml
+++ b/.github/workflows/model-quality.yml
@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@ jobs:
       REAL_DATA_MIN_DAYS: 7
       LEARNED_KFOLDS: 5
       LEARNED_MAX_VAL_LOSS: 0.2
+      FORECAST_BACKTEST_STALE_DAYS: 7
     steps:
       - name: Checkout
         uses: actions/checkout@v4
diff --git a/scripts/run-forecast-backtests.ts b/scripts/run-forecast-backtests.ts
index 4abe1dd5..e34c1441 100644
--- a/scripts/run-forecast-backtests.ts
+++ b/scripts/run-forecast-backtests.ts
@@ -154,7 +154,9 @@ async function main() {
       } else {
         const lastEventAt = await fetchLatestEventTimestamp(orgId, 'slack_signal')
         const staleCutoff = Date.now() - STALE_DAYS * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000
-        if (!lastEventAt || lastEventAt < staleCutoff) {
+        if (!lastEventAt) {
+          fallbackReason = 'No events found.'
+        } else if (new Date(lastEventAt).getTime() < staleCutoff) {
           fallbackReason = 'Event history is too old for a reliable backtest.'
         }
       }
diff --git a/src/components/nav/topbar.tsx b/src/components/nav/topbar.tsx
index 9d1d921c..268b00bb 100644
--- a/src/components/nav/topbar.tsx
+++ b/src/components/nav/topbar.tsx
@@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ import React from 'react'
 import { Search, Bell, User, Settings as SettingsIcon, Command } from 'lucide-react'
 import { cn } from '@/lib/utils'
 import { Button } from '@/components/ui/button'
+import { Tooltip, TooltipTrigger, TooltipContent, TooltipProvider } from '@/components/ui/tooltip'
 import {
   DropdownMenu,
   DropdownMenuContent,
@@ -51,61 +52,84 @@ export function Topbar() {
       </div>
 
       {/* Right Side - Actions */}
-      <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
-        {/* Notifications */}
-        <Button
-          variant="ghost"
-          size="icon"
-          className="text-neutral-medium hover:text-[var(--foreground)] hover:bg-[var(--surface)] transition-colors duration-150"
-          aria-label="Notifications"
-        >
-          <Bell className="size-4" />
-        </Button>
+      <TooltipProvider>
+        <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
+          {/* Notifications */}
+          <Tooltip>
+            <TooltipTrigger asChild>
+              <Button
+                variant="ghost"
+                size="icon"
+                className="text-neutral-medium hover:text-[var(--foreground)] hover:bg-[var(--surface)] transition-colors duration-150"
+                aria-label="Notifications"
+              >
+                <Bell className="size-4" />
+              </Button>
+            </TooltipTrigger>
+            <TooltipContent>
+              <p>Notifications</p>
+            </TooltipContent>
+          </Tooltip>
 
-        {/* User Menu */}
-        <DropdownMenu>
-          <DropdownMenuTrigger asChild>
-            <Button
-              variant="ghost"
-              size="icon"
-              className="text-neutral-medium hover:text-[var(--foreground)] hover:bg-[var(--surface)] transition-colors duration-150"
-              aria-label="User menu"
+          {/* User Menu */}
+          <DropdownMenu>
+            <Tooltip>
+              <TooltipTrigger asChild>
+                <DropdownMenuTrigger asChild>
+                  <Button
+                    variant="ghost"
+                    size="icon"
+                    className="text-neutral-medium hover:text-[var(--foreground)] hover:bg-[var(--surface)] transition-colors duration-150"
+                    aria-label="User menu"
+                  >
+                    <User className="size-4" />
+                  </Button>
+                </DropdownMenuTrigger>
+              </TooltipTrigger>
+              <TooltipContent>
+                <p>User account</p>
+              </TooltipContent>
+            </Tooltip>
+            <DropdownMenuContent
+              align="end"
+              className="bg-[var(--background)] border border-[var(--border)] text-[var(--foreground)]"
             >
-              <User className="size-4" />
-            </Button>
-          </DropdownMenuTrigger>
-          <DropdownMenuContent
-            align="end"
-            className="bg-[var(--background)] border border-[var(--border)] text-[var(--foreground)]"
-          >
-            <DropdownMenuLabel className="text-[var(--foreground)]">My Account</DropdownMenuLabel>
-            <DropdownMenuSeparator className="bg-[var(--border)]" />
-            <DropdownMenuItem className="text-[var(--foreground)] hover:bg-[var(--surface)]">
-              Profile
-            </DropdownMenuItem>
-            <DropdownMenuItem className="text-[var(--foreground)] hover:bg-[var(--surface)]">
-              Settings
-            </DropdownMenuItem>
-            <DropdownMenuSeparator className="bg-[var(--border)]" />
-            <DropdownMenuItem className="text-[var(--foreground)] hover:bg-[var(--surface)]">
-              Logout
-            </DropdownMenuItem>
-          </DropdownMenuContent>
-        </DropdownMenu>
+              <DropdownMenuLabel className="text-[var(--foreground)]">My Account</DropdownMenuLabel>
+              <DropdownMenuSeparator className="bg-[var(--border)]" />
+              <DropdownMenuItem className="text-[var(--foreground)] hover:bg-[var(--surface)]">
+                Profile
+              </DropdownMenuItem>
+              <DropdownMenuItem className="text-[var(--foreground)] hover:bg-[var(--surface)]">
+                Settings
+              </DropdownMenuItem>
+              <DropdownMenuSeparator className="bg-[var(--border)]" />
+              <DropdownMenuItem className="text-[var(--foreground)] hover:bg-[var(--surface)]">
+                Logout
+              </DropdownMenuItem>
+            </DropdownMenuContent>
+          </DropdownMenu>
 
-        {/* Settings Link */}
-        <Button
-          variant="ghost"
-          size="icon"
-          className="text-neutral-medium hover:text-[var(--foreground)] hover:bg-[var(--surface)] transition-colors duration-150"
-          aria-label="Settings"
-          asChild
-        >
-          <a href="/settings">
-            <SettingsIcon className="size-4" />
-          </a>
-        </Button>
-      </div>
+          {/* Settings Link */}
+          <Tooltip>
+            <TooltipTrigger asChild>
+              <Button
+                variant="ghost"
+                size="icon"
+                className="text-neutral-medium hover:text-[var(--foreground)] hover:bg-[var(--surface)] transition-colors duration-150"
+                aria-label="Settings"
+                asChild
+              >
+                <a href="/settings">
+                  <SettingsIcon className="size-4" />
+                </a>
+              </Button>
+            </TooltipTrigger>
+            <TooltipContent>
+              <p>Settings</p>
+            </TooltipContent>
+          </Tooltip>
+        </div>
+      </TooltipProvider>
     </header>
   )
 }