diff --git a/TODO.md b/TODO.md index 987a6b15e..ac5c2d19a 100644 --- a/TODO.md +++ b/TODO.md @@ -440,6 +440,28 @@ Do not let lower items crowd out higher ones. lives in campaign-facing pages, shared snippets, and the badge artifact, not the onboarding form. +## P1 - Person/Org Conversion Surfaces (post-PR #81) + +Roadmap from Mike's 2026-05-15 brainstorm. /people/[id] redesign lands in PR #81; the rest follow once that merges. Ship in this order for maximum reuse. + +- **PR-A: Foundation-action seed tasks.** Seed `optimize-earth` task tree with concrete user actions: donate $1, print poster, hang flyer, social-share. New task category `campaign-action`. Hours-prevented impact metric per task. One file: `packages/db/src/managed-data/managed-seed-data.ts`. Smallest, lowest risk; unlocks PR-B and PR-C. + +- **PR-B: `/orgs/[slug]` task display.** Mirror `/people/[id]` conversion-surface pattern onto org pages. Reuse `SufferingPreventedMetric` (extracted in #81). Wire `getOrganizationTasks` MCP to a page consumer. Primary CTA: ENDORSE (visitor not in org) vs SHARE (visitor's org already endorsed). Below-fold: org-completed tasks + member leaderboard. + +- **PR-C: Add-org + assign-task UX.** Backend primitives exist (`createOrganization` + `createTask` MCP). New surfaces: `/orgs/[slug]/admin/tasks` for org admin self-assignment; `/admin/assign-task` (superuser, Mike-only) for cross-org. Gate behind superuser role until proper moderation. Audience: org admin who endorsed via `/endorse`, wants to coordinate their members. + +- **PR-D: Hand-curated public-figure catalog.** Seed Person rows for top 50-100 public figures (scientists, politicians, celebrities). Each row: displayName, handle (`mlk`, `einstein`, `gates`), 50-word deadpan-Wishonia bio, 1-3 attributed campaign-relevant actions with documented public-statement sources, impact-estimate (DALYs averted, methodology-cited from `parameters-calculations-citations.ts`), `isPublicFigure: true` flag (new bool on Person). `/people/` renders with "Public-figure record" eyebrow. Visitors can co-sign the figure's position. + +- **PR-E: AI-cataloged public-figure activity (deferred).** Scale PR-D with NER on Wikipedia/news/govt records → impact-attribution model → manual-review pipeline. Scaffolding only after PR-D's manual seed proves the UX works. Not on the campaign critical path. + +**Out-of-scope for this roadmap:** peer-task-assignment on `/people/[id]` (Mike deferred 2026-05-15; needs whitelist/opt-in moderation design — separate plan). + +**Shared component reuse:** all five PRs share `SufferingPreventedMetric` (extracted in #81). No new design primitive. + +**Risks:** public-figure attribution disputes (use only documented public statements; label "historical position, not active endorsement"); spam on `/admin/assign-task` (superuser-gated); org-task display competing with conversion CTA (keep task list below the fold). + +Drafted plan: `.claude/plans/campaign-impact-attribution-roadmap.md` (not yet reviewed; Mike declined full `/autoplan` review for speed). + ## P1 - Plaintiffs and Court Framing ### `/humanity-v-government` plaintiff-first rework diff --git a/packages/data/src/parameters/parameters-calculations-citations.ts b/packages/data/src/parameters/parameters-calculations-citations.ts index e99194585..c2ea26809 100644 --- a/packages/data/src/parameters/parameters-calculations-citations.ts +++ b/packages/data/src/parameters/parameters-calculations-citations.ts @@ -1871,6 +1871,96 @@ export const MEDICAL_QALY_THRESHOLD: Parameter = { manualPageTitle: "United States Efficiency Audit", }; +export const MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_BRAIN_INITIATIVE_PLANNED_BUDGET: Parameter = { + value: 4500000000.0, + parameterName: "MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_BRAIN_INITIATIVE_PLANNED_BUDGET", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-medical_toolchain_brain_initiative_planned_budget", + unit: "USD", + displayName: "Medical Toolchain BRAIN Initiative Planned Budget", + description: "Planned NIH BRAIN Initiative commitment described in the BRAIN 2025 scientific vision.", + sourceType: "external", + sourceRef: "nih-brain-initiative-planned-budget", + sourceUrl: "https://braininitiative.nih.gov/vision/nih-brain-initiative-reports/brain-2025-scientific-vision", + confidence: "high", + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html", + manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", +}; + +export const MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_CRISPR_NIH_FUNDING_2011_2018: Parameter = { + value: 3100000000.0, + parameterName: "MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_CRISPR_NIH_FUNDING_2011_2018", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-medical_toolchain_crispr_nih_funding_2011_2018", + unit: "USD", + displayName: "Medical Toolchain NIH CRISPR Funding, FY2011-FY2018", + description: "Rounded NIH CRISPR-related research funding for FY2011-FY2018 from CRS Table 1.", + sourceType: "external", + sourceRef: "crs-crispr-nih-funding-2011-2018", + sourceUrl: "https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/PDF/R44824/R44824.7.pdf", + confidence: "high", + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html", + manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", +}; + +export const MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_HGP_COST_USD: Parameter = { + value: 2700000000.0, + parameterName: "MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_HGP_COST_USD", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-medical_toolchain_hgp_cost_usd", + unit: "USD", + displayName: "Medical Toolchain Human Genome Project Cost", + description: "Approximate Human Genome Project cost used as an observed medical-toolchain anchor.", + sourceType: "external", + sourceRef: "human-genome-and-genetic-editing", + sourceUrl: "https://www.genome.gov/11006929/2003-release-international-consortium-completes-hgp", + confidence: "medium", + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html", + manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", +}; + +export const MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_HITECH_EHR_INCENTIVE_ESTIMATED_SPENDING: Parameter = { + value: 30000000000.0, + parameterName: "MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_HITECH_EHR_INCENTIVE_ESTIMATED_SPENDING", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-medical_toolchain_hitech_ehr_incentive_estimated_spending", + unit: "USD", + displayName: "Medical Toolchain HITECH EHR Incentive Estimated Spending", + description: "GAO estimate of Medicare and Medicaid EHR incentive program spending from 2011 through 2019.", + sourceType: "external", + sourceRef: "hitech-ehr-incentive-estimated-spending", + sourceUrl: "https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-12-481", + confidence: "high", + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html", + manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", +}; + +export const MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_OWS_POTENTIAL_VACCINE_AWARDS: Parameter = { + value: 18000000000.0, + parameterName: "MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_OWS_POTENTIAL_VACCINE_AWARDS", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-medical_toolchain_ows_potential_vaccine_awards", + unit: "USD", + displayName: "Medical Toolchain Operation Warp Speed Potential Vaccine Awards", + description: "GAO-reported total potential estimated value of Operation Warp Speed vaccine candidate awards.", + sourceType: "external", + sourceRef: "operation-warp-speed-potential-vaccine-awards", + sourceUrl: "https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-21-207.pdf", + confidence: "high", + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html", + manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", +}; + +export const MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PCORNET_INFRASTRUCTURE_FUNDING: Parameter = { + value: 325000000.0, + parameterName: "MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PCORNET_INFRASTRUCTURE_FUNDING", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-medical_toolchain_pcornet_infrastructure_funding", + unit: "USD", + displayName: "Medical Toolchain PCORnet Infrastructure Funding Anchor", + description: "Rounded PCORI-funded PCORnet Studies amount from the Q4 2025 PCORnet dashboard. Used as a network-scale pragmatic-trial infrastructure anchor.", + sourceType: "external", + sourceRef: "pcornet-infrastructure-funding", + sourceUrl: "https://pcornet.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EXTERNAL_PCORnetDashboard.Q4.v2.FINAL_.pdf", + confidence: "medium", + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html", + manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", +}; + export const MENTAL_HEALTH_PRODUCTIVITY_LOSS_PER_CAPITA: Parameter = { value: 2000.0, parameterName: "MENTAL_HEALTH_PRODUCTIVITY_LOSS_PER_CAPITA", @@ -4059,6 +4149,118 @@ export const CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_BASE_ASK_TOTAL: Parameter = { manualPageTitle: "Humanity v. Government", }; +export const CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_AGING_INTAKE_EXPOSURE: Parameter = { + value: 1.783085302091402e+16, + parameterName: "CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_AGING_INTAKE_EXPOSURE", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-corporate_damages_prosecutor_gross_aging_intake_exposure", + unit: "USD", + displayName: "Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Aging Intake Exposure", + description: "Gross pleading exposure for the overlapping aging intake class valued at VSL. Displayed separately because it overlaps with the broader disease-death class.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_AGING_PLAINTIFFS * VALUE_OF_STATISTICAL_LIFE", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,aging,gross} = N_{plaintiffs,aging} \\times VSL = 1.78B \\times \\$10M = \\$17800T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{plaintiffs,aging} = T_{post,aging} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 35 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 1.78B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,aging} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{aging,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{aging,plead} = Y_{disease,plead} + T_{aging,lag} = 1{,}950 + 40 = 1{,}990\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}", + confidenceInterval: [-3240433850791136.0, 3.4362615569364576e+16], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html", + manualPageTitle: "Humanity v. Government", +}; + +export const CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_DISEASE_DALY_EXPOSURE: Parameter = { + value: 3.0011409759876064e+16, + parameterName: "CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_DISEASE_DALY_EXPOSURE", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-corporate_damages_prosecutor_gross_disease_daly_exposure", + unit: "USD", + displayName: "Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Disease DALY Exposure", + description: "Gross pleading exposure for post-cutoff disease DALYs valued at the standard QALY value. This is disease-year and suffering exposure, not a final non-duplicative award.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_DALYS * STANDARD_ECONOMIC_QALY_VALUE_USD", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,DALY,gross} = DALYs_{post,disease} \\times Value_{QALY} = 200B \\times \\$150K = \\$30000T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{post,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} = 75 \\times 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% = 200B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}", + confidenceInterval: [1.6290743642563936e+16, 3.4375762231099856e+16], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html", + manualPageTitle: "Humanity v. Government", +}; + +export const CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_MEDICAL_MISALLOCATION_EXPOSURE: Parameter = { + value: 3.820897075910147e+16, + parameterName: "CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_MEDICAL_MISALLOCATION_EXPOSURE", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-corporate_damages_prosecutor_gross_medical_misallocation_exposure", + unit: "USD", + displayName: "Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Medical Misallocation Exposure", + description: "Gross pleading exposure for post-cutoff medical misallocation disease plaintiffs valued at VSL. This is pleading exposure, not a final non-duplicative award.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_PLAINTIFFS * VALUE_OF_STATISTICAL_LIFE", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,med,gross} = N_{plaintiffs,disease} \\times VSL = 3.82B \\times \\$10M = \\$38200T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{plaintiffs,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 75 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 3.82B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}", + confidenceInterval: [1.4842476689391028e+16, 6.219030813469708e+16], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html", + manualPageTitle: "Humanity v. Government", +}; + +export const CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_PER_CAPITA: Parameter = { + value: 5314340.315768355, + parameterName: "CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_PER_CAPITA", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-corporate_damages_prosecutor_gross_pleading_exposure_per_capita", + unit: "USD/person", + displayName: "Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Pleading Exposure Per Living Human", + description: "Gross death-based pleading exposure per living human if the judgment were distributed as universal residual restitution. This is not a final award.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_TOTAL / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,plead,gross,pc} = \\frac{D_{corp,plead,gross}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$42500T}{8B} = \\$5.31M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,plead,gross} = D_{corp,floor} + D_{corp,med,gross} = \\$4310T + \\$38200T = \\$42500T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,med,gross} = N_{plaintiffs,disease} \\times VSL = 3.82B \\times \\$10M = \\$38200T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{plaintiffs,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 75 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 3.82B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}", + confidenceInterval: [2262175.2814962254, 8482391.365931023], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html", + manualPageTitle: "Humanity v. Government", +}; + +export const CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_TOTAL: Parameter = { + value: 4.251472252614684e+16, + parameterName: "CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_TOTAL", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-corporate_damages_prosecutor_gross_pleading_exposure_total", + unit: "USD", + displayName: "Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Pleading Exposure Total", + description: "Aggressive prosecutor gross pleading exposure: strict non-duplicative floor plus gross medical misallocation exposure. This is gross pleading exposure, not a final award.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STRICT_FLOOR_TOTAL + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_MEDICAL_MISALLOCATION_EXPOSURE", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,plead,gross} = D_{corp,floor} + D_{corp,med,gross} = \\$4310T + \\$38200T = \\$42500T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,med,gross} = N_{plaintiffs,disease} \\times VSL = 3.82B \\times \\$10M = \\$38200T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{plaintiffs,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 75 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 3.82B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}", + confidenceInterval: [1.831173502728708e+16, 6.740650064213561e+16], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html", + manualPageTitle: "Humanity v. Government", +}; + +export const CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_WITH_DALYS: Parameter = { + value: 7.252613228602291e+16, + parameterName: "CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_WITH_DALYS", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-corporate_damages_prosecutor_gross_pleading_exposure_with_dalys", + unit: "USD", + displayName: "Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Pleading Exposure With DALYs", + description: "Aggressive prosecutor stacked gross pleading exposure: strict floor plus post-cutoff disease-death VSL exposure plus post-cutoff disease DALY exposure. This intentionally shows the full pleading stack and may overlap; it is not a final non-duplicative award.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STRICT_FLOOR_TOTAL + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_MEDICAL_MISALLOCATION_EXPOSURE + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_DISEASE_DALY_EXPOSURE", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,plead,DALY} = D_{corp,floor} + D_{corp,med,gross} + D_{corp,DALY,gross} = \\$4310T + \\$38200T + \\$30000T = \\$72500T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,med,gross} = N_{plaintiffs,disease} \\times VSL = 3.82B \\times \\$10M = \\$38200T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{plaintiffs,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 75 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 3.82B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,DALY,gross} = DALYs_{post,disease} \\times Value_{QALY} = 200B \\times \\$150K = \\$30000T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{post,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} = 75 \\times 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% = 200B\n\\end{gathered}", + confidenceInterval: [3.704105926007588e+16, 9.918255649446518e+16], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html", + manualPageTitle: "Humanity v. Government", +}; + +export const CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_WITH_DALYS_PER_CAPITA: Parameter = { + value: 9065766.535752865, + parameterName: "CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_WITH_DALYS_PER_CAPITA", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-corporate_damages_prosecutor_gross_pleading_exposure_with_dalys_per_capita", + unit: "USD/person", + displayName: "Corporate Damages Prosecutor Gross Pleading Exposure With DALYs Per Living Human", + description: "Gross stacked pleading exposure per living human if the death and DALY pleading stack were distributed as universal residual restitution. This is not a final award.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_WITH_DALYS / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nD_{corp,plead,DALY,pc} = \\frac{D_{corp,plead,DALY}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{\\$72500T}{8B} = \\$9.07M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,plead,DALY} = D_{corp,floor} + D_{corp,med,gross} + D_{corp,DALY,gross} = \\$4310T + \\$38200T + \\$30000T = \\$72500T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,floor} = V_{war,VSL} + V_{lag,VSL} + D_{property+env} + Spending_{mil,excess1900} + Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = \\$3100T + \\$1020T + \\$50T + \\$135T + \\$4.92T = \\$4310T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{war,VSL} = Deaths_{war,1900} \\times VSL = 310M \\times \\$10M = \\$3100T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } V_{lag,VSL} = Deaths_{lag,total} \\times VSL = 102M \\times \\$10M = \\$1020T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Deaths_{lag,total} = Lives_{saved,annual} \\times T_{lag} = 12.4M \\times 8.2 = 102M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Lives_{saved,annual} = \\frac{LY_{saved,annual}}{T_{ext}} = \\frac{149M}{12} = 12.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{property+env} = D_{property} + D_{env} = \\$45T + \\$5T = \\$50T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Spending_{mil,excess1900} = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - Spending_{mil,1900}\\right) = \\sum_{t=1900}^{2024} \\max\\left(0, Spending_{mil,t} - \\$66.1B\\right) = \\$135T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Penalty_{pentagon,FCA} = Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} - Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} = \\$7.38T - \\$2.46T = \\$4.92T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Exposure_{pentagon,FCA} = Funds_{pentagon,unaccounted} \\times m_{FCA} = \\$2.46T \\times 3 = \\$7.38T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,med,gross} = N_{plaintiffs,disease} \\times VSL = 3.82B \\times \\$10M = \\$38200T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{plaintiffs,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 75 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 3.82B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } D_{corp,DALY,gross} = DALYs_{post,disease} \\times Value_{QALY} = 200B \\times \\$150K = \\$30000T\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } DALYs_{post,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} = 75 \\times 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% = 200B\n\\end{gathered}", + confidenceInterval: [4573012.000524101, 12479765.152367432], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html", + manualPageTitle: "Humanity v. Government", +}; + export const CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STATE_FARM_CEILING_EXPOSURE_PER_CAPITA: Parameter = { value: 9132189.708806708, parameterName: "CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STATE_FARM_CEILING_EXPOSURE_PER_CAPITA", @@ -6288,6 +6490,21 @@ export const MEDICAL_RESEARCH_PCT_OF_DISEASE_BURDEN: Parameter = { manualPageTitle: "The 1% Treaty: Harnessing Greed to Eradicate Disease", }; +export const MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_OBSERVED_ANCHOR_COSTS: Parameter = { + value: 58625000000.0, + parameterName: "MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_OBSERVED_ANCHOR_COSTS", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-medical_toolchain_observed_anchor_costs", + unit: "USD", + displayName: "Observed Medical Toolchain Anchor Costs", + description: "Sum of observed anchor costs for major medical toolchain programs. This is anchor evidence for the prosecutor reserve, not a claim that these programs alone cure disease.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "medium", + formula: "HGP + CRISPR + BRAIN + PCORnet + HITECH + OWS", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nC_{tool,anchors} \\\\\n= C_{tool,HGP} + C_{tool,CRISPR} + C_{tool,BRAIN} \\\\\n+ C_{tool,PCORnet} + C_{tool,EHR} + C_{tool,OWS} \\\\\n= \\$2.7B + \\$3.1B + \\$4.5B + \\$325M + \\$30B + \\$18B \\\\\n= \\$58.6B\n\\end{gathered}", + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html", + manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", +}; + export const MILITARY_TO_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_RATIO: Parameter = { value: 45.333333333333336, parameterName: "MILITARY_TO_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_RATIO", @@ -6400,17 +6617,6 @@ export const NUCLEAR_WINTER_OVERKILL_FACTOR: Parameter = { manualPageTitle: "The Apocalypse Markup", }; -export const NUCLEAR_OVERKILL_SPARE_LAYERS: Parameter = { - ...NUCLEAR_WINTER_OVERKILL_FACTOR, - value: Math.max(0, Math.round(NUCLEAR_WINTER_OVERKILL_FACTOR.value) - 1), - parameterName: "NUCLEAR_OVERKILL_SPARE_LAYERS", - unit: "count", - displayName: "Nuclear Overkill Spare Layers", - description: - "Rounded nuclear-winter-scale destructive capacity left after the first civilization-ending threshold.", - formula: "round(NUCLEAR_WINTER_OVERKILL_FACTOR) - 1", -}; - export const PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT: Parameter = { value: 113571000000.0, parameterName: "PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT", @@ -8654,6 +8860,21 @@ export const WAR_LIFE_YEARS_LOST_SINCE_1900: Parameter = { manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", }; +export const WAR_MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PRIZE_OVERPAY_MULTIPLE: Parameter = { + value: 341.1513859275053, + parameterName: "WAR_MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PRIZE_OVERPAY_MULTIPLE", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_medical_toolchain_prize_overpay_multiple", + unit: "x", + displayName: "War Medical Toolchain Prize Overpay Multiple", + description: "How many times larger the prosecutor's medical-toolchain prize reserve is than the observed anchor costs listed here.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "WAR_MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PRIZE_BUDGET / MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_OBSERVED_ANCHOR_COSTS", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nm_{tool,overpay} = \\frac{C_{tool,prize}}{C_{tool,anchors}} = \\frac{\\$20T}{\\$58.6B} = 341\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } C_{tool,anchors} = C_{tool,HGP} + C_{tool,CRISPR} + C_{tool,BRAIN} + C_{tool,PCORnet} + C_{tool,EHR} + C_{tool,OWS} = \\$2.7B + \\$3.1B + \\$4.5B + \\$325M + \\$30B + \\$18B = \\$58.6B\n\\end{gathered}", + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html", + manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", +}; + export const WAR_QALY_VALUE_LOST_SINCE_1900: Parameter = { value: 1255500000000000.0, parameterName: "WAR_QALY_VALUE_LOST_SINCE_1900", @@ -8686,6 +8907,54 @@ export const WAR_TOTAL_COST_SINCE_1900: Parameter = { manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", }; +export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_CONTROL_SENSITIVITY_YEAR: Parameter = { + value: 1990.0, + parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_CONTROL_SENSITIVITY_YEAR", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_aging_control_sensitivity_year", + unit: "year", + displayName: "War-Redirect Biological Aging Control Year", + description: "Counterfactual calendar year when biological aging becomes a treatable risk factor in the aggressive medical-redirect model. Uses the calculated aging pleading cutoff year.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nY_{aging,redirect} = Y_{aging,plead} = 1{,}990 = 1{,}990\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{aging,plead} = Y_{disease,plead} + T_{aging,lag} = 1{,}950 + 40 = 1{,}990\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}", + confidenceInterval: [1966.0, 2031.0], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html", + manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", +}; + +export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR: Parameter = { + value: 1990.0, + parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_aging_pleading_cutoff_year", + unit: "year", + displayName: "War-Redirect Aging Pleading Cutoff Year", + description: "Aggressive prosecutor pleading cutoff year for presumptive aging-death plaintiffs. Calculated as the disease cutoff plus the geroscience lag assumption.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_DISEASE_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_LAG_AFTER_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEARS", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nY_{aging,plead} = Y_{disease,plead} + T_{aging,lag} = 1{,}950 + 40 = 1{,}990\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}", + confidenceInterval: [1966.0, 2031.0], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html", + manualPageTitle: "Humanity v. Government", +}; + +export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_DISEASE_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR: Parameter = { + value: 1950.0, + parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_DISEASE_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_disease_pleading_cutoff_year", + unit: "year", + displayName: "War-Redirect Disease Pleading Cutoff Year", + description: "Aggressive prosecutor pleading cutoff year for presumptive disease-death plaintiffs. Calculated as the 1900 redirect start year plus medical-toolchain bootstrap years plus the treaty-scale therapeutic queue-clearance years.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "round(WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_START_YEAR + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_TOOLCHAIN_BOOTSTRAP_YEARS + DFDA_QUEUE_CLEARANCE_YEARS)", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nY_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}", + confidenceInterval: [1926.0, 1991.0], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html", + manualPageTitle: "Humanity v. Government", +}; + export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_EXCESS_MILITARY_SPENDING_ABOVE_1900_FREEZE: Parameter = { value: 134715100378699.22, parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_EXCESS_MILITARY_SPENDING_ABOVE_1900_FREEZE", @@ -8720,6 +8989,165 @@ export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_EXCESS_MILITARY_TRIAL_YEARS: Parameter = { manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", }; +export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_INFECTIOUS_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEAR: Parameter = { + value: 1950.0, + parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_INFECTIOUS_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEAR", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_infectious_disease_control_year", + unit: "year", + displayName: "War-Redirect Infectious Disease Control Year", + description: "Counterfactual calendar year for practical infectious-disease control in the aggressive medical-redirect model. Uses the calculated disease pleading cutoff year.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_DISEASE_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nY_{infectious,redirect} = Y_{disease,plead} = 1{,}950 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}", + confidenceInterval: [1926.0, 1991.0], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html", + manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", +}; + +export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_NET_TRIAL_BUDGET: Parameter = { + value: 150000000000000.0, + parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_NET_TRIAL_BUDGET", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_net_trial_budget", + unit: "USD", + displayName: "War Trial Redirect Net Trial Budget After Toolchain Reserve", + description: "Cumulative military spending since the Federal Reserve era after reserving the aggressive prosecutor's medical-toolchain prize budget.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "CUMULATIVE_MILITARY_SPENDING_FED_ERA - WAR_MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PRIZE_BUDGET", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nB_{trials,net} \\\\\n= Spending_{mil,cum,fed} - C_{tool,prize} \\\\\n= \\$170T - \\$20T \\\\\n= \\$150T\n\\end{gathered}", + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html", + manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", +}; + +export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_NONAGING_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEAR: Parameter = { + value: 1950.0, + parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_NONAGING_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEAR", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_nonaging_disease_control_year", + unit: "year", + displayName: "War-Redirect Major Non-Aging Disease Control Year", + description: "Counterfactual calendar year for practical control of major non-aging disease burden in the aggressive medical-redirect model. Uses the calculated disease pleading cutoff year.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_DISEASE_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nY_{disease,redirect} = Y_{disease,plead} = 1{,}950 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}", + confidenceInterval: [1926.0, 1991.0], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html", + manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", +}; + +export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PATIENT_SLOTS_FUNDED: Parameter = { + value: 161463939720.12918, + parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PATIENT_SLOTS_FUNDED", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_patient_slots_funded", + unit: "patient-slots", + displayName: "War Trial Redirect Patient Slots Funded", + description: "Patient-slots funded by the net redirected war budget at pragmatic trial cost per patient. Patient-slots are repeated experimental opportunities, not unique people.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_NET_TRIAL_BUDGET / DFDA_PRAGMATIC_TRIAL_COST_PER_PATIENT", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nN_{slots,war} = \\frac{B_{trials,net}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$150T}{\\$929} = 161B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } B_{trials,net} = Spending_{mil,cum,fed} - C_{tool,prize} = \\$170T - \\$20T = \\$150T\n\\end{gathered}", + confidenceInterval: [65239753911.206116, 668082298224.2614], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html", + manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", +}; + +export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PATIENT_SLOTS_PER_LIVING_HUMAN: Parameter = { + value: 20.18299246501615, + parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PATIENT_SLOTS_PER_LIVING_HUMAN", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_patient_slots_per_living_human", + unit: "patient-slots/person", + displayName: "War Trial Redirect Patient Slots Per Living Human", + description: "Patient-slots funded per living human, used to avoid implying hundreds of billions of unique patients. It means repeated trial opportunities across time and indications.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PATIENT_SLOTS_FUNDED / GLOBAL_POPULATION_2024", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nN_{slots,pc} = \\frac{N_{slots,war}}{Pop_{global}} = \\frac{161B}{8B} = 20.2\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{slots,war} = \\frac{B_{trials,net}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$150T}{\\$929} = 161B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } B_{trials,net} = Spending_{mil,cum,fed} - C_{tool,prize} = \\$170T - \\$20T = \\$150T\n\\end{gathered}", + confidenceInterval: [7.986529736696173, 85.31954236967228], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html", + manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", +}; + +export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_AGING_PLAINTIFFS: Parameter = { + value: 1783085302.091402, + parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_AGING_PLAINTIFFS", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_post_cutoff_aging_plaintiffs", + unit: "plaintiffs", + displayName: "War Trial Redirect Post-Cutoff Aging Plaintiffs", + description: "Aggressive prosecutor aging intake count after the aging cutoff year. This overlaps with the broader disease-death plaintiff class because the annual-deaths parameter covers all disease and aging deaths; it is an intake class, not an additive damages line.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_AGING_YEARS * GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DEATHS_CURABLE_DISEASES * EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DEATH_PCT", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nN_{plaintiffs,aging} = T_{post,aging} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 35 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 1.78B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,aging} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{aging,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{aging,plead} = Y_{disease,plead} + T_{aging,lag} = 1{,}950 + 40 = 1{,}990\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}", + confidenceInterval: [-348922159.99768925, 2697128060.997609], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html", + manualPageTitle: "Humanity v. Government", +}; + +export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_AGING_YEARS: Parameter = { + value: 35.0, + parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_AGING_YEARS", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_post_cutoff_aging_years", + unit: "years", + displayName: "War Trial Redirect Post-Cutoff Aging Years", + description: "Inclusive number of years in the aggressive prosecutor aging-death intake window.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PLEADING_END_YEAR - WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR + 1", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nT_{post,aging} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{aging,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{aging,plead} = Y_{disease,plead} + T_{aging,lag} = 1{,}950 + 40 = 1{,}990\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}", + confidenceInterval: [-6.0, 59.0], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html", + manualPageTitle: "Humanity v. Government", +}; + +export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_DALYS: Parameter = { + value: 200076065065.84042, + parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_DALYS", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_post_cutoff_disease_dalys", + unit: "DALYs", + displayName: "War Trial Redirect Post-Cutoff Disease DALYs", + description: "Aggressive prosecutor estimate of post-cutoff avoidable disease DALYs. This measures disease-years, disability, and suffering after the disease cutoff, separate from the death-plaintiff VSL count.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_YEARS * GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DALY_BURDEN * EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DALY_PCT", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nDALYs_{post,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times DALYs_{global,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,DALY} = 75 \\times 2.88B \\times 92.6\\% = 200B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}", + confidenceInterval: [90567719058.0023, 254664875895.50497], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html", + manualPageTitle: "Humanity v. Government", +}; + +export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_PLAINTIFFS: Parameter = { + value: 3820897075.910147, + parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_PLAINTIFFS", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_post_cutoff_disease_plaintiffs", + unit: "plaintiffs", + displayName: "War Trial Redirect Post-Cutoff Disease Plaintiffs", + description: "Aggressive prosecutor pleading count for post-cutoff disease-death plaintiffs: inclusive years from the disease cutoff through the pleading end year, multiplied by annual disease deaths and the eventually avoidable death share.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_YEARS * GLOBAL_ANNUAL_DEATHS_CURABLE_DISEASES * EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DEATH_PCT", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nN_{plaintiffs,disease} = T_{post,disease} \\times Deaths_{curable,ann} \\times Pct_{avoid,death} = 75 \\times 55M \\times 92.6\\% = 3.82B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}", + confidenceInterval: [1813224267.827481, 4619750777.528809], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html", + manualPageTitle: "Humanity v. Government", +}; + +export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_YEARS: Parameter = { + value: 75.0, + parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_YEARS", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_post_cutoff_disease_years", + unit: "years", + displayName: "War Trial Redirect Post-Cutoff Disease Years", + description: "Inclusive number of years in the aggressive prosecutor disease-death plaintiff window.", + sourceType: "calculated", + confidence: "low", + formula: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PLEADING_END_YEAR - WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_DISEASE_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR + 1", + latex: "\\begin{gathered}\nT_{post,disease} = Y_{plead,end} - Y_{disease,plead} + 1\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Y_{disease,plead} = Y_{redirect,start} + T_{tool,bootstrap} + T_{queue,trial} = 1{,}900 + 14 + 36 = 1{,}950\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,trial} = \\frac{T_{queue,SQ}}{k_{capacity}} = \\frac{443}{12.3} = 36\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } T_{queue,SQ} = \\frac{N_{untreated}}{Treatments_{new,ann}} = \\frac{6{,}650}{15} = 443\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{untreated} = N_{rare} \\times 0.95 = 7{,}000 \\times 0.95 = 6{,}650\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } k_{capacity} = \\frac{N_{fundable,ref}}{Slots_{curr}} = \\frac{23.4M}{1.9M} = 12.3\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } N_{fundable,ref} = \\frac{Subsidies_{trial,ref}}{Cost_{pragmatic,pt}} = \\frac{\\$21.8B}{\\$929} = 23.4M\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } Subsidies_{trial,ref} = Funding_{trial,ref} - OPEX_{trial} = \\$21.8B - \\$40M = \\$21.8B\n\\\\[0.5em]\n\\text{where } OPEX_{trial} = Cost_{platform} + Cost_{staff} + Cost_{infra} + Cost_{regulatory} + Cost_{community} = \\$15M + \\$10M + \\$8M + \\$5M + \\$2M = \\$40M\n\\end{gathered}", + confidenceInterval: [34.0, 99.0], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html", + manualPageTitle: "Humanity v. Government", +}; + export const WILLING_TRIAL_PARTICIPANTS_GLOBAL: Parameter = { value: 1075200000.0, parameterName: "WILLING_TRIAL_PARTICIPANTS_GLOBAL", @@ -10811,6 +11239,20 @@ export const WAR_ENVIRONMENTAL_DESTRUCTION_SINCE_1900: Parameter = { manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", }; +export const WAR_MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PRIZE_BUDGET: Parameter = { + value: 20000000000000.0, + parameterName: "WAR_MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PRIZE_BUDGET", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_medical_toolchain_prize_budget", + unit: "USD", + displayName: "War Medical Toolchain Prize Budget", + description: "Aggressive prosecutor reserve for buying the missing medical toolchain: prizes, diagnostics, EHRs, sequencing, AI, factories, surveillance, and pragmatic-trial infrastructure before counting remaining money as direct trial capacity.", + sourceType: "definition", + confidence: "low", + confidenceInterval: [5000000000000.0, 50000000000000.0], + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html", + manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", +}; + export const WAR_PROPERTY_DESTRUCTION_SINCE_1900: Parameter = { value: 45000000000000.0, parameterName: "WAR_PROPERTY_DESTRUCTION_SINCE_1900", @@ -10827,44 +11269,56 @@ export const WAR_PROPERTY_DESTRUCTION_SINCE_1900: Parameter = { manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", }; -export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_CONTROL_SENSITIVITY_YEAR: Parameter = { - value: 2015.0, - parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_CONTROL_SENSITIVITY_YEAR", - calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_aging_control_sensitivity_year", - unit: "year", - displayName: "War-Redirect Biological Aging Control Year (Sensitivity)", - description: "Exploratory sensitivity year for when a 1900 treaty freezing military spending and redirecting avoided military growth to pragmatic trials might have made biological aging a treatable risk factor. Included only to show what the same trial platform could surface if geroscience became testable at population scale; not part of the central historical damages estimate.", +export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_LAG_AFTER_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEARS: Parameter = { + value: 40.0, + parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_LAG_AFTER_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEARS", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_aging_lag_after_disease_control_years", + unit: "years", + displayName: "War-Redirect Aging Lag After Disease Control", + description: "Additional lag after broad disease-control capacity before biological aging becomes a treatable risk factor in the aggressive prosecutor model.", sourceType: "definition", confidence: "low", - confidenceInterval: [1985.0, 2060.0], + confidenceInterval: [10.0, 65.0], manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html", manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", }; -export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_INFECTIOUS_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEAR: Parameter = { - value: 1950.0, - parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_INFECTIOUS_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEAR", - calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_infectious_disease_control_year", +export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PLEADING_END_YEAR: Parameter = { + value: 2024.0, + parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PLEADING_END_YEAR", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_pleading_end_year", unit: "year", - displayName: "War-Redirect Infectious Disease Control Year", - description: "Counterfactual calendar year by which a 1900 treaty freezing military spending and redirecting avoided military growth to pragmatic trials could plausibly have achieved practical control of major infectious diseases. Practical control means effective prevention, treatment, or elimination in most places, not literal extinction of every pathogen.", + displayName: "War-Redirect Pleading End Year", + description: "End year for the aggressive prosecutor post-cutoff plaintiff count.", sourceType: "definition", - confidence: "low", - confidenceInterval: [1935.0, 1975.0], + confidence: "high", + manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html", + manualPageTitle: "Humanity v. Government", +}; + +export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_START_YEAR: Parameter = { + value: 1900.0, + parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_START_YEAR", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_start_year", + unit: "year", + displayName: "War-Redirect Medical Counterfactual Start Year", + description: "Start year for the aggressive prosecutor medical redirect counterfactual.", + sourceType: "definition", + confidence: "high", manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html", manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", }; -export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_NONAGING_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEAR: Parameter = { - value: 1990.0, - parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_NONAGING_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEAR", - calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_nonaging_disease_control_year", - unit: "year", - displayName: "War-Redirect Major Non-Aging Disease Control Year", - description: "Counterfactual calendar year by which a 1900 treaty freezing military spending and redirecting avoided military growth to pragmatic trials could plausibly have delivered effective prevention, treatment, or control for most major non-aging disease burden. This is a scenario parameter for historical opportunity-cost reasoning, not a measured historical fact.", +export const WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_TOOLCHAIN_BOOTSTRAP_YEARS: Parameter = { + value: 14.0, + parameterName: "WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_TOOLCHAIN_BOOTSTRAP_YEARS", + calculationsUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/calculations.html#sec-war_trial_redirect_toolchain_bootstrap_years", + unit: "years", + displayName: "War-Redirect Medical Toolchain Bootstrap Years", + description: "Assumed years to build the missing medical toolchain before the queue-clearance clock runs at full force: diagnostics, EHRs, sequencing, AI, factories, surveillance, and trial infrastructure. Set so the central queue model yields a 1950 disease cutoff.", sourceType: "definition", confidence: "low", - confidenceInterval: [1965.0, 2015.0], + confidenceInterval: [0.0, 40.0], manualPageUrl: "https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html", manualPageTitle: "The Cost of War", }; @@ -11027,6 +11481,12 @@ export const parameters = { LOBBYIST_SALARY_MIN_K, MEASLES_VACCINATION_ROI, MEDICAL_QALY_THRESHOLD, + MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_BRAIN_INITIATIVE_PLANNED_BUDGET, + MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_CRISPR_NIH_FUNDING_2011_2018, + MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_HGP_COST_USD, + MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_HITECH_EHR_INCENTIVE_ESTIMATED_SPENDING, + MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_OWS_POTENTIAL_VACCINE_AWARDS, + MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PCORNET_INFRASTRUCTURE_FUNDING, MENTAL_HEALTH_PRODUCTIVITY_LOSS_PER_CAPITA, NATO_DEFENSE_SPENDING_ANNUAL, NEW_DISEASE_FIRST_TREATMENTS_PER_YEAR, @@ -11164,6 +11624,13 @@ export const parameters = { CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROPERTY_ENVIRONMENTAL_DESTRUCTION, CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_BASE_ASK_PER_CAPITA, CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_BASE_ASK_TOTAL, + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_AGING_INTAKE_EXPOSURE, + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_DISEASE_DALY_EXPOSURE, + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_MEDICAL_MISALLOCATION_EXPOSURE, + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_PER_CAPITA, + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_TOTAL, + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_WITH_DALYS, + CORPORATE_DAMAGES_PROSECUTOR_GROSS_PLEADING_EXPOSURE_WITH_DALYS_PER_CAPITA, CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STATE_FARM_CEILING_EXPOSURE_PER_CAPITA, CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STATE_FARM_CEILING_EXPOSURE_TOTAL, CORPORATE_DAMAGES_STRICT_FLOOR_PER_CAPITA, @@ -11303,13 +11770,13 @@ export const parameters = { LOST_PROSPERITY_NPV_PERPETUITY_PER_CAPITA, LOST_PROSPERITY_NPV_PERPETUITY_TOTAL, MEDICAL_RESEARCH_PCT_OF_DISEASE_BURDEN, + MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_OBSERVED_ANCHOR_COSTS, MILITARY_TO_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_RATIO, MILITARY_TO_GOVERNMENT_CLINICAL_TRIALS_SPENDING_RATIO, MILITARY_VS_MEDICAL_RESEARCH_RATIO, MISALLOCATION_FACTOR_DEATH_VS_SAVING, MRNA_THERAPEUTIC_COMBINATIONS, NIH_TRADITIONAL_TRIAL_MAX_EFFICIENCY_PCT, - NUCLEAR_OVERKILL_SPARE_LAYERS, NUCLEAR_WINTER_OVERKILL_FACTOR, PEACE_DIVIDEND_ANNUAL_SOCIETAL_BENEFIT, PEACE_DIVIDEND_CONFLICT_REDUCTION, @@ -11451,10 +11918,24 @@ export const parameters = { WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_LOST_GDP_GLOBAL, WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_LOST_GDP_PER_CAPITA, WAR_LIFE_YEARS_LOST_SINCE_1900, + WAR_MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PRIZE_OVERPAY_MULTIPLE, WAR_QALY_VALUE_LOST_SINCE_1900, WAR_TOTAL_COST_SINCE_1900, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_CONTROL_SENSITIVITY_YEAR, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_DISEASE_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR, WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_EXCESS_MILITARY_SPENDING_ABOVE_1900_FREEZE, WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_EXCESS_MILITARY_TRIAL_YEARS, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_INFECTIOUS_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEAR, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_NET_TRIAL_BUDGET, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_NONAGING_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEAR, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PATIENT_SLOTS_FUNDED, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PATIENT_SLOTS_PER_LIVING_HUMAN, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_AGING_PLAINTIFFS, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_AGING_YEARS, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_DALYS, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_PLAINTIFFS, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_POST_CUTOFF_DISEASE_YEARS, WILLING_TRIAL_PARTICIPANTS_GLOBAL, WISHONIA_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_15YR, WISHONIA_DISEASE_CURE_FRACTION_20YR_FULL, @@ -11604,10 +12085,12 @@ export const parameters = { WAR_COUNTERFACTUAL_ANNUAL_GROWTH_BOOST, WAR_DEATHS_SINCE_1900, WAR_ENVIRONMENTAL_DESTRUCTION_SINCE_1900, + WAR_MEDICAL_TOOLCHAIN_PRIZE_BUDGET, WAR_PROPERTY_DESTRUCTION_SINCE_1900, - WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_CONTROL_SENSITIVITY_YEAR, - WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_INFECTIOUS_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEAR, - WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_NONAGING_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEAR, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_LAG_AFTER_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEARS, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_PLEADING_END_YEAR, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_START_YEAR, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_TOOLCHAIN_BOOTSTRAP_YEARS, WISHOCRATIC_CROWD_ALPHA, _CASCADE_GENERATIONS, _R0, @@ -11951,6 +12434,20 @@ export const citations: Record = { 'container-title': "Journal of Development Studies", URL: "https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00220388.2024.2445533", }, + "crs-crispr-nih-funding-2011-2018": { + id: "crs-crispr-nih-funding-2011-2018", + type: "report", + title: "Advanced Gene Editing: CRISPR-Cas9", + author: [ + { + literal: "Congressional Research Service" + }, + ], + issued: { 'date-parts': [[2018]] }, + publisher: "Congressional Research Service", + URL: "https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/PDF/R44824/R44824.7.pdf", + note: "Table 1 reports NIH CRISPR-related funding totaling \\$3,083,419,930 for FY2011-FY2018.", + }, "cs-global-wealth-report-2023": { id: "cs-global-wealth-report-2023", type: "article-journal", @@ -12502,6 +12999,20 @@ export const citations: Record = { URL: "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5954824/", note: "PMC: California Universal Health Care | CEPR: Government Investment | PMC: Health Sector Investment & Growth | ODI: Fiscal Multipliers Review", }, + "hitech-ehr-incentive-estimated-spending": { + id: "hitech-ehr-incentive-estimated-spending", + type: "report", + title: "Electronic Health Records: First Year of CMS's Incentive Programs Shows Opportunities to Improve Processes to Verify Providers Met Requirements", + author: [ + { + literal: "U.S. Government Accountability Office" + }, + ], + issued: { 'date-parts': [[2012]] }, + publisher: "U.S. Government Accountability Office", + URL: "https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-12-481", + note: "GAO states Medicare and Medicaid EHR incentive program spending was estimated to total \\$30 billion from 2011 through 2019.", + }, "hsieh-moretti2019": { id: "hsieh-moretti2019", type: "article-journal", @@ -12882,6 +13393,19 @@ export const citations: Record = { issued: { 'date-parts': [[2011]] }, URL: "https://necrometrics.com/all20c.htm", }, + "nih-brain-initiative-planned-budget": { + id: "nih-brain-initiative-planned-budget", + type: "webpage", + title: "BRAIN 2025: A Scientific Vision", + author: [ + { + literal: "National Institutes of Health BRAIN Initiative" + }, + ], + issued: { 'date-parts': [[2014]] }, + URL: "https://braininitiative.nih.gov/vision/nih-brain-initiative-reports/brain-2025-scientific-vision", + note: "The BRAIN 2025 scientific vision set the NIH component plan; NIH notices describe the plan as a sustained federal commitment of \\$4.5 billion over 12 years.", + }, "nih-budget-fy2025": { id: "nih-budget-fy2025", type: "article-journal", @@ -13002,6 +13526,20 @@ export const citations: Record = { URL: "https://www.opensecrets.org/revolving-door", note: "OpenSecrets, Revolving Door", }, + "operation-warp-speed-potential-vaccine-awards": { + id: "operation-warp-speed-potential-vaccine-awards", + type: "report", + title: "Operation Warp Speed Vaccine Candidate Awards Potential Value", + author: [ + { + literal: "U.S. Government Accountability Office" + }, + ], + issued: { 'date-parts': [[2020]] }, + publisher: "U.S. Government Accountability Office", + URL: "https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-21-207.pdf", + note: "GAO reported Operation Warp Speed vaccine candidate awards with obligations of at least \\$10 billion and total potential estimated value of at least \\$18 billion.", + }, "papanicolas2018": { id: "papanicolas2018", type: "article-journal", @@ -13030,6 +13568,19 @@ export const citations: Record = { URL: "https://trialsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13063-015-1105-3", note: "Trials: Patients' Willingness Survey | Applied Clinical Trials: Patient Participation | PMC: Study Design Factors", }, + "pcornet-infrastructure-funding": { + id: "pcornet-infrastructure-funding", + type: "webpage", + title: "PCORnet Quarterly Progress Report, Q4 2025", + author: [ + { + literal: "PCORnet" + }, + ], + issued: { 'date-parts': [[2026]] }, + URL: "https://pcornet.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EXTERNAL_PCORnetDashboard.Q4.v2.FINAL_.pdf", + note: "The dashboard reports PCORI funding for PCORnet Studies of \\$324,785,410, rounded here to \\$325 million as a network-scale infrastructure anchor.", + }, "pentagon-unaccounted-2-5t": { id: "pentagon-unaccounted-2-5t", type: "article-journal", @@ -13832,11 +14383,11 @@ export const citations: Record = { /** Summary statistics */ export const PARAMETER_STATS = { - total: 700, - external: 220, - calculated: 342, - definitions: 138, - citations: 160, + total: 730, + external: 226, + calculated: 364, + definitions: 140, + citations: 165, } as const; // ============================================================================ diff --git a/packages/web/e2e/email-screenshots.spec.ts b/packages/web/e2e/email-screenshots.spec.ts index e8b0e4c72..2f343ea16 100644 --- a/packages/web/e2e/email-screenshots.spec.ts +++ b/packages/web/e2e/email-screenshots.spec.ts @@ -86,7 +86,7 @@ test.describe("email visual coverage", () => { "post-vote-share", "email-post-vote-share", [ - "Forward this message", + "Forward this message to everyone you don't want to suffer and die of horrible diseases.", "122 stored apocalypses", "COPY THIS MESSAGE", "1% Treaty", diff --git a/packages/web/e2e/utils/visual-routes.ts b/packages/web/e2e/utils/visual-routes.ts index df461b872..76d9101ff 100644 --- a/packages/web/e2e/utils/visual-routes.ts +++ b/packages/web/e2e/utils/visual-routes.ts @@ -53,6 +53,7 @@ const SEEDED_DYNAMIC_ROUTES: VisualRoute[] = [ path: "/organizations/institute-for-accelerated-medicine", required: false, }, + { name: "people-mike", path: "/people/mike", required: false }, { name: "task-optimize-earth", path: "/tasks/optimize-earth", required: false }, { name: "task-one-percent-treaty", path: "/tasks/1-pct-treaty", required: false }, { name: "task-signer-canada", path: "/tasks/1-pct-treaty-signer-ca", required: false }, diff --git a/packages/web/scripts/build-visual-review.mjs b/packages/web/scripts/build-visual-review.mjs index 722581615..ab278c990 100644 --- a/packages/web/scripts/build-visual-review.mjs +++ b/packages/web/scripts/build-visual-review.mjs @@ -113,6 +113,7 @@ const routeOrder = [ "tasks-index-auth", "people", "people-auth", + "people-mike", "questions", "feedback", "settings", diff --git a/packages/web/src/app/donate/page.tsx b/packages/web/src/app/donate/page.tsx index 06a159fa6..33e74223b 100644 --- a/packages/web/src/app/donate/page.tsx +++ b/packages/web/src/app/donate/page.tsx @@ -17,6 +17,7 @@ import { WaysToGiveCard } from "@/components/donate/WaysToGiveCard"; import { TreatyTradeThesis } from "@/components/referendum/TreatyTradeThesis"; import { ParameterTemplate } from "@/components/shared/ParameterTemplate"; import { ParameterValue } from "@/components/shared/ParameterValue"; +import { defaultButtonClassName } from "@/components/ui/default-button"; import { getSiteMetadata } from "@/lib/metadata"; import { donateLink, onePercentTreatyPaperLink, ROUTES } from "@/lib/routes"; import { getSiteFromHeaders } from "@/lib/site"; @@ -37,7 +38,16 @@ export async function generateMetadata() { export default function DonatePage() { return ( -
+
+

@@ -130,15 +140,17 @@ export default function DonatePage() {

- - Loading calculator… -
- } - > - - + + } + > + + +
diff --git a/packages/web/src/app/endorse/page.logged-out.md b/packages/web/src/app/endorse/page.logged-out.md index 757e80bc3..09d0f97c1 100644 --- a/packages/web/src/app/endorse/page.logged-out.md +++ b/packages/web/src/app/endorse/page.logged-out.md @@ -27,30 +27,21 @@ - Add your organization. Publicly support the [1% Treaty](/treaty) once. Then use the member link, email starter, website button, or iframe to help your audience answer the Global Survey to End War and Disease. - Join first. Your tools page gives you the member link, email starter, website button, iframe, one-hour action checklist, and outreach grant request draft for funding from the International Campaign. ### APPLY FOR A CAMPAIGN GRANT -- Estimate the outreach grant your organization could request from the International Campaign to End War and Disease to run the Global Survey to End War and Disease through your audience. Campaign links and embeds keep attribution and impact measurement in one system. -- OUTREACH CAPACITY -- EMAIL LIST -- MONTHLY SITE VISITORS -- SOCIAL REACH -- MONTHS EMBEDDED -- ASSUMPTIONS -- MESSAGE REACH % -- SURVEY RESPONSE RATE % -- MEMBER SHARING LIFT -- GRANT $ PER RESPONSE +- Use this after you join: one email, one social post, and a website embed can turn your existing audience into verified responses to the Global Survey to End War and Disease. The estimate starts with the grant request and lives saved. Change the assumptions below if you need to. - GRANT REQUEST - $3,960 - ESTIMATED OUTREACH COST PER RESPONSE: $2 -- SURVEY RESPONSES -- 1,980 -- FROM 66,000 PEOPLE REACHED - MODELED LIVES SAVED - 5,346 - $0.74 PER MODELED LIFE SAVED +- SURVEY RESPONSES +- 1,980 +- FROM 66,000 PEOPLE REACHED - SUFFERING PREVENTED - 109,058 - YEARS OF SUFFERING PREVENTED - 1,980 verified survey responses × [2.7](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html) lives and [55](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html) years prevented per response. At an estimated outreach cost of $2 per response, the outreach request is $3,960. +#### SHOW ASSUMPTIONS #### GRANT REQUEST DRAFT - COPY REQUEST DRAFT - LEGAL NOTES FOR ORGANIZATIONS diff --git a/packages/web/src/app/people/[id]/page.logged-out.md b/packages/web/src/app/people/[id]/page.logged-out.md index 39ff54327..b5722eda4 100644 --- a/packages/web/src/app/people/[id]/page.logged-out.md +++ b/packages/web/src/app/people/[id]/page.logged-out.md @@ -16,8 +16,6 @@ ## 404 - PAGE NOT FOUND - Fascinating. You've managed to navigate to a page that doesn't exist. On my planet, our routing infrastructure hasn't lost a page in 4,237 years. You lot can't even keep track of a URL. -- To be fair, your species also loses approximately $2.1 trillion annually to administrative inefficiency, so misplacing a web page is relatively on-brand. -- The page you're looking for has either been moved, deleted, or — and I cannot stress how likely this is — never existed in the first place. Much like your evidence-based policymaking. - WISHONIA DIAGNOSTIC REPORT - Problem: Page not found - Severity: Mildly embarrassing diff --git a/packages/web/src/app/people/[id]/page.tsx b/packages/web/src/app/people/[id]/page.tsx index a60d55dc2..80b206024 100644 --- a/packages/web/src/app/people/[id]/page.tsx +++ b/packages/web/src/app/people/[id]/page.tsx @@ -1,29 +1,29 @@ import type { Metadata } from "next"; import type { ReactNode } from "react"; -import { PersonLifeStatus } from "@optimitron/db/enums"; +import { VOTER_SUFFERING_HOURS_PREVENTED } from "@optimitron/data/parameters"; +import { PersonLifeStatus, VotePosition } from "@optimitron/db/enums"; import { unstable_cache } from "next/cache"; import { headers } from "next/headers"; import Link from "next/link"; import { getServerSession } from "next-auth"; import { notFound } from "next/navigation"; import type { TaskCardTask } from "@/components/tasks/task-card"; -import { SortableTaskList } from "@/components/tasks/task-list-controls"; -import { YEARS_PER_AVERTED_DEATH } from "@/components/tasks/task-row"; +import { SufferingPreventedMetric } from "@/components/referendum/SignatoriesLeaderboard"; import { Avatar } from "@/components/retroui/Avatar"; -import { defaultButtonClassName } from "@/components/ui/default-button"; -import { WelfareClaim } from "@/components/shared/WelfareClaim"; -import { isPublicOfficialPerson } from "@/lib/public-officials"; +import { CopyLinkButton } from "@/components/sharing/copy-link-button"; import { - aggregateTaskDelayStats, - formatCompactCount, - formatCompactCurrency, -} from "@/lib/tasks/accountability"; + defaultButtonClassName, + primaryButtonClassName, +} from "@/components/ui/default-button"; +import { WelfareClaim } from "@/components/shared/WelfareClaim"; import { getPersonTaskProfileData } from "@/lib/tasks.server"; import { authOptions } from "@/lib/auth"; +import { DECLARATION_SLUG } from "@/lib/declaration"; +import { prisma } from "@/lib/prisma"; import { getRepresentedLifeStatusLabel } from "@/lib/represented-life-status"; +import { buildOfficialReferendumVoteWhere } from "@/lib/referendum-vote-classification.server"; import { humanityVGovernmentLink, - peopleLink, plaintiffsLink, ROUTES, } from "@/lib/routes"; @@ -31,7 +31,12 @@ import { getRepresentedPersonProfileData, type RepresentedPersonProfileData, } from "@/lib/represented-people.server"; -import { getSiteFromHeaders } from "@/lib/site"; +import { + getRequestSiteOrigin, + getSiteFromHeaders, +} from "@/lib/site"; +import { TREATY_REFERENDUM_SLUG } from "@/lib/treaty"; +import { buildUserReferralUrl } from "@/lib/url"; const PUBLIC_PERSON_PROFILE_REVALIDATE_SECONDS = 300; @@ -47,6 +52,47 @@ const getCachedPersonTaskProfileData = unstable_cache( { revalidate: PUBLIC_PERSON_PROFILE_REVALIDATE_SECONDS }, ); +type PersonTaskProfileData = NonNullable< + Awaited> +>; +type PublicProfilePerson = PersonTaskProfileData["person"]; +type PublicProfileVote = PublicProfilePerson["referendumVotes"][number]; + +const CAMPAIGN_TASK_TERMS = [ + "1% treaty", + "one-percent-treaty", + "war on disease", + "war-on-disease", + "humanity v government", + "humanity-v-government", + "court of humanity", + "plaintiff", + "referendum", + "global survey", +] as const; + +async function getVisitorTreatyStatus(userId: string | null) { + if (!userId) { + return { hasSignedTreaty: false }; + } + + const vote = await prisma.referendumVote.findFirst({ + where: { + ...buildOfficialReferendumVoteWhere({ + answer: VotePosition.YES, + }), + referendum: { + deletedAt: null, + slug: TREATY_REFERENDUM_SLUG, + }, + userId, + }, + select: { id: true }, + }); + + return { hasSignedTreaty: Boolean(vote) }; +} + export async function generateMetadata({ params, }: { @@ -55,9 +101,12 @@ export async function generateMetadata({ const { id } = await params; const hdrs = await headers(); const site = getSiteFromHeaders(hdrs); - const representedData = await getRepresentedPersonProfileData(id); + const [representedData, data] = await Promise.all([ + getRepresentedPersonProfileData(id), + getPersonTaskProfileData(id, null), + ]); - if (representedData) { + if (representedData && (!data || !shouldUseCampaignProfile(data.person))) { const isDeceased = representedData.person.lifeStatus === PersonLifeStatus.DECEASED; const condition = representedData.memorial?.conditionLabel ?? null; @@ -92,8 +141,6 @@ export async function generateMetadata({ }; } - const data = await getPersonTaskProfileData(id, null); - if (!data) { return { title: { absolute: `Person | ${site.name}` }, @@ -101,21 +148,20 @@ export async function generateMetadata({ }; } - const isOfficial = isPublicOfficialPerson(data.person); + const treatyVote = getVoteBySlug(data.person, TREATY_REFERENDUM_SLUG); + const description = treatyVote + ? `${data.person.displayName} signed the 1% Treaty. Add your name.` + : `${data.person.displayName}'s public campaign profile. Sign the 1% Treaty.`; return { title: { absolute: `${data.person.displayName} | ${site.name}` }, - description: isOfficial - ? `${data.person.displayName}'s employee performance review.` - : `${data.person.displayName}'s public task profile.`, + description, robots: { index: true, follow: true }, metadataBase: new URL(site.canonicalOrigin), openGraph: { siteName: site.name, title: data.person.displayName, - description: isOfficial - ? `${data.person.displayName}'s employee performance review.` - : `${data.person.displayName}'s public task profile.`, + description, }, }; } @@ -143,6 +189,93 @@ function formatDate(value: Date | null) { }).format(value); } +function formatIsoDate(value: Date | string | null | undefined) { + if (!value) return null; + const date = value instanceof Date ? value : new Date(value); + if (!Number.isFinite(date.getTime())) return null; + return date.toISOString().slice(0, 10); +} + +function formatHumanCount(value: number) { + return Math.max(0, value).toLocaleString("en-US"); +} + +function formatRecruitmentPhrase(value: number) { + const count = Math.max(0, value); + const noun = count === 1 ? "human" : "humans"; + return `recruited ${formatHumanCount(count)} ${noun}`; +} + +function getVoteBySlug( + person: PublicProfilePerson, + slug: string, +): PublicProfileVote | null { + return ( + person.referendumVotes.find( + (vote) => vote.referendum.slug === slug, + ) ?? null + ); +} + +function shouldUseCampaignProfile(person: PublicProfilePerson) { + return Boolean(person.user) || person.referendumVotes.length > 0; +} + +function getTrustSignal(person: PublicProfilePerson) { + const treatyVote = getVoteBySlug(person, TREATY_REFERENDUM_SLUG); + const recruitedCount = person.user?._count.referendumReferrals ?? 0; + + if (treatyVote) { + const signedDate = formatIsoDate(treatyVote.createdAt); + const parts = [ + signedDate + ? `Signed the 1% Treaty ${signedDate}` + : "Signed the 1% Treaty", + ]; + if (recruitedCount > 0) { + parts.push(formatRecruitmentPhrase(recruitedCount)); + } + return parts.join(", "); + } + + const affiliation = person.currentAffiliation?.trim(); + if ( + affiliation && + /\b(institute|medicine|research|university|hospital|clinic|lab|foundation|mit)\b/i.test( + affiliation, + ) + ) { + return affiliation; + } + + return "Public campaign profile"; +} + +function getCampaignTaskText(task: TaskCardTask) { + return [ + task.taskKey, + task.title, + task.description, + task.parentTask?.title, + ...task.interestTags, + ...task.skillTags, + ] + .filter(Boolean) + .join(" ") + .toLowerCase(); +} + +function isCampaignTask(task: TaskCardTask) { + const haystack = getCampaignTaskText(task); + return CAMPAIGN_TASK_TERMS.some((term) => haystack.includes(term)); +} + +function buildForwardReferralHref(referralUrl: string) { + const subject = "Sign the 1% Treaty"; + const body = `I signed the 1% Treaty. Add your name: ${referralUrl}`; + return `mailto:?subject=${encodeURIComponent(subject)}&body=${encodeURIComponent(body)}`; +} + function RepresentedPersonProfile({ data, }: { @@ -358,162 +491,210 @@ export default async function PersonDetailPage({ const { id } = await params; const session = await getServerSession(authOptions); const userId = session?.user.id ?? null; - const representedData = userId - ? await getRepresentedPersonProfileData(id) - : await getCachedRepresentedPersonProfileData(id); - - if (representedData) { + const [representedData, data] = await Promise.all([ + userId + ? getRepresentedPersonProfileData(id) + : getCachedRepresentedPersonProfileData(id), + userId + ? getPersonTaskProfileData(id, userId) + : getCachedPersonTaskProfileData(id), + ]); + + if (representedData && (!data || !shouldUseCampaignProfile(data.person))) { return ; } - const data = userId - ? await getPersonTaskProfileData(id, userId) - : await getCachedPersonTaskProfileData(id); - if (!data) { notFound(); } - const { openTasks, person, verifiedTasks } = data; + const hdrs = await headers(); + const requestOrigin = getRequestSiteOrigin({ + host: hdrs.get("host"), + forwardedHost: hdrs.get("x-forwarded-host"), + forwardedProto: hdrs.get("x-forwarded-proto"), + }); + const visitorStatus = await getVisitorTreatyStatus(userId); + const { person, verifiedTasks } = data; const fallbackInitials = getFallbackInitials(person.displayName); - const openSummary = aggregateTaskDelayStats(openTasks); - - const openTasksTyped = openTasks as unknown as TaskCardTask[]; const verifiedTyped = verifiedTasks as unknown as TaskCardTask[]; - - const netEconomicImpact = verifiedTyped.reduce((sum, task) => { - const v = task.impact?.selectedFrame?.expectedEconomicValueUsdBase; - return v != null ? sum + v : sum; - }, 0); - const netLivesSaved = verifiedTyped.reduce((sum, task) => { - const d = task.impact?.selectedFrame?.expectedDalysAvertedBase; - return d != null ? sum + d / YEARS_PER_AVERTED_DEATH : sum; - }, 0); - - const hasAnyTasks = openTasks.length > 0 || verifiedTyped.length > 0; + const campaignTasks = verifiedTyped.filter(isCampaignTask).slice(0, 6); + const treatyVote = getVoteBySlug(person, TREATY_REFERENDUM_SLUG); + const courtVote = getVoteBySlug(person, DECLARATION_SLUG); + const recruitedCount = person.user?._count.referendumReferrals ?? 0; + const plaintiffCount = person.user?._count.createdCourtCaseParties ?? 0; + const signatureCount = (treatyVote ? 1 : 0) + recruitedCount; + const hoursPrevented = + VOTER_SUFFERING_HOURS_PREVENTED.value * signatureCount; + const profileReferralUrl = person.user + ? buildUserReferralUrl( + { handle: person.handle, referralCode: person.user.referralCode }, + requestOrigin, + ) + : `${requestOrigin}${ROUTES.vote}`; + const visitorReferralUrl = session?.user + ? buildUserReferralUrl(session.user, requestOrigin) + : null; + const shouldShowVisitorReferral = + visitorStatus.hasSignedTreaty && Boolean(visitorReferralUrl); + const signatureRows = person.referendumVotes; + const activityRows = [ + { + label: "Treaty signed", + value: treatyVote + ? (formatIsoDate(treatyVote.createdAt) ?? "Yes") + : "Not public", + }, + { + label: "Court signed", + value: courtVote + ? (formatIsoDate(courtVote.createdAt) ?? "Yes") + : "Not public", + }, + { + label: "Plaintiffs registered", + value: formatHumanCount(plaintiffCount), + }, + { + label: "Humans recruited", + value: formatHumanCount(recruitedCount), + }, + ]; return ( -
-
-
- -
- - - +
+
+
+ + {person.image ? ( + + ) : ( +
{fallbackInitials || "?"} - - -
-

- {person.displayName} -

- {person.currentAffiliation ? ( -

- {person.currentAffiliation} -

- ) : null} - {isPublicOfficialPerson(person) ? ( -

- Job: -

- ) : null} -
-
- {person.bio?.trim() ? ( -

- {person.bio} +

+ )} + +
+

+ {person.displayName} +

+

+ {getTrustSignal(person)}

- ) : null} +
- {/* Stats — overdue clock + net completed impact */} - {hasAnyTasks ? ( -
-

- Employee Performance -

-
-
-

- Overdue Tasks -

-

- {openTasks.length.toLocaleString("en-US")} -

-
-
-

- DALYs Lost From Delay -

-

- {formatCompactCount(openSummary.currentHumanLivesLost)} -

-
-
-

- Economic Loss From Delay -

-

- {formatCompactCurrency( - openSummary.currentEconomicValueUsdLost, - )} -

-
-
-

- Net Lives Saved -

-

- {formatCompactCount(netLivesSaved)} -

-
+
+ +
+ +
+ {shouldShowVisitorReferral && visitorReferralUrl ? ( +
+ + Forward My Referral +
-

- Net $ Saved -

-

- {formatCompactCurrency(netEconomicImpact)} +

+ Your referral URL

+
+

+ {visitorReferralUrl} +

+ +
-
- ) : null} + ) : ( + + Sign the Treaty + + )} +
- {openTasksTyped.length > 0 ? ( -
-

- Overdue Tasks -

- -
- ) : null} +
+ {activityRows.map((row) => ( +
+

+ {row.label} +

+

+ {row.value} +

+
+ ))} +
- {verifiedTyped.length > 0 ? ( -
-

- Completed Tasks +
+

+ Public Signatures +

+ {signatureRows.length > 0 ? ( +
    + {signatureRows.map((vote) => ( +
  • + + {vote.referendum.title} + + + {formatIsoDate(vote.createdAt) ?? "Signed"} + +
    • + ))} +
+ ) : ( +

+ No public referendum signatures yet. +

+ )} +
+ + {campaignTasks.length > 0 ? ( +
+

+ Public Campaign Tasks

- +
    + {campaignTasks.map((task) => ( +
  • + + {task.title} + + {task.verifiedAt ? ( +

    + Completed {formatIsoDate(task.verifiedAt) ?? ""} +

    + ) : null} +
    • + ))} +
) : null}

diff --git a/packages/web/src/app/plaintiffs/page.logged-out.md b/packages/web/src/app/plaintiffs/page.logged-out.md index d0e3e78bb..52d1072df 100644 --- a/packages/web/src/app/plaintiffs/page.logged-out.md +++ b/packages/web/src/app/plaintiffs/page.logged-out.md @@ -16,6 +16,10 @@ ## REGISTER PLAINTIFFS FOR HUMANITY V GOVERNMENT. - You pay governments [$36.5 trillion](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html) a year to promote the general welfare — i.e. maximize median healthy life years and median after-tax inflation-adjusted income. Since 1900 they spent [$170 trillion](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html) murdering [310 million](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html) of their employers — enough to fund [37,800](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/declaration-of-optimization.html) years of clinical trials at current funding levels. - Register anyone you love who was killed or harmed. The case in [Humanity v. Government](/humanity-v-government) seeks [$10.6 million/person](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/court-of-humanity.html) per murdered human in damages. +### IF SOMEONE YOU LOVE DIED OF DISEASE IN OR AFTER [1950](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html), OR AGING IN OR AFTER [1990](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html), IT IS WRONGFUL DEATH. +- The cited math counts the time to build medical tools and clear the treatment queue, then puts the disease line at [1950](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html). Aging gets about [40](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.html) more years and lands at [1990](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html); biology was harder, not innocent. +- IT IS WRONGFUL DEATH. +- [REGISTER A PLAINTIFF](#register-plaintiff) ### REGISTER PLAINTIFF - FIRST NAME - MIDDLE NAME OPTIONAL diff --git a/packages/web/src/app/plaintiffs/page.tsx b/packages/web/src/app/plaintiffs/page.tsx index c85f1c876..312018223 100644 --- a/packages/web/src/app/plaintiffs/page.tsx +++ b/packages/web/src/app/plaintiffs/page.tsx @@ -3,6 +3,9 @@ import { CUMULATIVE_MILITARY_IN_GOVT_TRIAL_YEARS, CUMULATIVE_MILITARY_SPENDING_FED_ERA, LOST_PROSPERITY_LIFETIME_DAMAGES_PER_CAPITA, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_LAG_AFTER_DISEASE_CONTROL_YEARS, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_AGING_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR, + WAR_TRIAL_REDIRECT_DISEASE_PLEADING_CUTOFF_YEAR, WAR_DEATHS_SINCE_1900, } from "@optimitron/data/parameters"; import { PersonDeathCauseCategory } from "@optimitron/db/enums"; @@ -175,8 +178,8 @@ export default async function PlaintiffsPage({ param={CUMULATIVE_MILITARY_SPENDING_FED_ERA} />{" "} murdering{" "} - {" "} - of their employers — enough to fund{" "} + of + their employers — enough to fund{" "} - +
+

+ If someone you love died of disease in or after{" "} + + , or aging in or after{" "} + + , it is wrongful death. +

+

+ The cited math counts the time to build medical tools and clear the + treatment queue, then puts the disease line at{" "} + + . Aging gets about{" "} + {" "} + more years and lands at{" "} + + ; biology was harder, not innocent. +

+

+ It is wrongful death. +

+ + REGISTER A PLAINTIFF + +
+ +
+ +
diff --git a/packages/web/src/app/signatories/page.logged-out.md b/packages/web/src/app/signatories/page.logged-out.md index 96800431c..2ff0ff66e 100644 --- a/packages/web/src/app/signatories/page.logged-out.md +++ b/packages/web/src/app/signatories/page.logged-out.md @@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ - [#2 Nikhil Yadala](/people/empirical-trailblazer) 1.40 MILLION HOURS OF SUFFERING PREVENTED - [#3 Wishonia](/people/wishonia) 468,000 HOURS OF SUFFERING PREVENTED - HUMANITY MANAGER · ASSIGNMENT 1 -### FORWARD THIS MESSAGE. +### FORWARD THIS MESSAGE TO EVERYONE YOU DON'T WANT TO SUFFER AND DIE OF HORRIBLE DISEASES. - You are now Humanity Manager for [8 billion](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/solution/dih.html) humans. Get them to spend [30 seconds](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/recruitment-and-propaganda-plan.html) voting on the [1% Treaty](/treaty). The trade: one of Earth's [122](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/appendix/extinction-surplus.html) stored apocalypses for [12.3](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html)× more clinical trials, pulling disease eradication from [443](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html) years to [36](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html). - Send this message to [two](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/global-referendum.html) humans you love. They send it to [two](https://manual.WarOnDisease.org/knowledge/strategy/global-referendum.html) more. After enough rounds, everyone votes. You earn one Earth Optimization Point per recruited voter, redeemable for a share of the [Earth Optimization Prize](/prize). - COPY THIS MESSAGE Forward it to two humans you love right now. I love you and don't want you to suffer and die of horrible diseases so please take 30 seconds to vote on this stupid treaty at http://127.0.0.1:3001/vote as it will reduce the likelihood you will suffer and die of horrible diseases. diff --git a/packages/web/src/components/dashboard/NotificationPreferencesCard.tsx b/packages/web/src/components/dashboard/NotificationPreferencesCard.tsx index 57900924f..ea53edebe 100644 --- a/packages/web/src/components/dashboard/NotificationPreferencesCard.tsx +++ b/packages/web/src/components/dashboard/NotificationPreferencesCard.tsx @@ -103,7 +103,10 @@ export function NotificationPreferencesCard({ preferences, onRefresh }: Notifica ) return ( - + NOTIFICATION PREFERENCES Choose how and when to be bothered. diff --git a/packages/web/src/components/landing/TreatyPostVoteShareFlow.tsx b/packages/web/src/components/landing/TreatyPostVoteShareFlow.tsx index dddab24d6..392b51069 100644 --- a/packages/web/src/components/landing/TreatyPostVoteShareFlow.tsx +++ b/packages/web/src/components/landing/TreatyPostVoteShareFlow.tsx @@ -35,7 +35,6 @@ import { EVENTUALLY_AVOIDABLE_DEATH_PCT, GLOBAL_DISEASE_DEATHS_DAILY, HOURS_PER_YEAR, - NUCLEAR_OVERKILL_SPARE_LAYERS, SAFE_COMPOUNDS_COUNT, TREATY_HALE_GAIN_YEAR_15, TREATY_TRAJECTORY_LIFETIME_INCOME_GAIN_PER_CAPITA, @@ -68,6 +67,7 @@ import { FLOW_MAJORITY_OF_HUMANS_ON_EARTH, FLOW_NUCLEAR_WINTER_OVERKILL_FACTOR, FLOW_NUCLEAR_WINTER_WARHEAD_THRESHOLD, + FLOW_WASTEFUL_APOCALYPSES, FLOW_TOTAL_LIVES_SAVED, FLOW_TOTAL_SUFFERING_HOURS, FLOW_VOTER_LIVES_SAVED, @@ -154,7 +154,7 @@ function NuclearOverkillTemplate({ template }: { template: string }) { ), NUCLEAR_OVERKILL_SPARE_LAYERS: ( - + ), NUCLEAR_WINTER_OVERKILL_FACTOR: (