Author: Alvaro Garriscalzada
Date: February 2026
Dataset: United Nations Digital Library — 947,434 vote records · 5,694 resolutions · 202 member states
This study examines voting patterns in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) across eight U.S. presidential administrations, from Reagan (1981) through Trump II (2025). Using Pearson correlation–based alignment scoring, K-means clustering on PCA-reduced vote matrices, and topic-level disaggregation, the analysis reveals the structural and persistent isolation of the United States within the General Assembly — across all administrations and all substantive topic categories.
| Finding | Detail |
|---|---|
| U.S. isolation is structural | The global pro-US mean has been negative for every presidency except Bush Sr (+0.031) |
| Trump II is the deepest low | Pro-US mean of −0.171, the lowest in the dataset |
| China is the consensus power | Highest global agreement rate on all 10 topic categories |
| Only Israel is a majority ally | 75.6% agreement; the next closest (Micronesia) is 55.4% |
| Biden → Trump II transition | 97.4% cluster switching — near-total global realignment |
| U.S. majority on 1 topic only | Terrorism & Security (51.6%, based on 34 resolutions) |
UN_Analysis/
├── code/
│ ├── un_analysis.py # Core analysis pipeline (clustering, PCA, alignment)
│ ├── generate_comprehensive_report.py # Generates the full country-by-country report
│ └── generate_linkedin_graphs.py # Generates publication-ready figures
├── data/
│ ├── raw/
│ │ └── 2026_02_06_ga_voting.csv # ⛔ Not in repo (207 MB) — see Data Source below
│ ├── global_analysis/
│ │ ├── country_alignment_scores.csv # Pro-US alignment score per country
│ │ ├── country_clusters_overall.csv # Cluster assignments (202 countries)
│ │ ├── cluster_switching_rates.csv # Inter-presidency cluster transition rates
│ │ ├── presidency_summary_metrics.csv # Per-presidency aggregate statistics
│ │ ├── topic_alignment_by_presidency.csv # Topic × presidency alignment matrix
│ │ ├── topic_summary_by_presidency.csv # Topic-level agreement percentages
│ │ ├── divisive_resolutions_*.csv # Most divisive resolutions per presidency (×8)
│ │ └── presidency_clusters_*.csv # Cluster membership per presidency (×8)
│ ├── presidency_clusters/ # Duplicate cluster CSVs for convenience
│ └── presidency_divisive/ # Duplicate divisive-resolution CSVs
├── pictures/
│ ├── pca/ # PCA cluster scatter plots per presidency
│ ├── pro_us_histograms/ # Pro-US score distributions per presidency
│ ├── global/
│ │ └── umap_clusters.png # UMAP projection of the full vote matrix
│ ├── pca_*.png # Individual PCA plots (top-level copies)
│ └── pro_us_hist_*.png # Individual histogram plots (top-level copies)
├── interactive_maps/
│ └── un_alignment_interactive_map.html # Interactive choropleth (Plotly)
├── reports/
│ ├── ANALYSIS_SUMMARY.md # Executive summary of all findings
│ ├── COMPLETE_RESULTS_REPORT.md # Full statistical results
│ └── COMPREHENSIVE_COUNTRY_ANALYSIS.md # Country-by-country breakdown
├── linkedin_post/
│ ├── LINKEDIN_POST.md # Publication text
│ └── *.png # 20 publication-ready figures
├── logs/
│ ├── run_output.txt # Full pipeline stdout
│ └── presidency_analysis_log.txt # Detailed analysis log
├── github/
│ └── unga-global-alignment-analysis/ # Original GitHub repo scaffold + paper
├── .gitignore
└── README.md
All voting records were obtained from the United Nations Digital Library (digitallibrary.un.org), snapshot dated 2026-02-06.
The raw file (2026_02_06_ga_voting.csv, 207 MB, 947,434 rows) exceeds GitHub's 100 MB limit and is not included in this repository. To reproduce the analysis:
- Visit digitallibrary.un.org
- Navigate to Voting Data → General Assembly
- Download all roll-call votes and save as
data/raw/2026_02_06_ga_voting.csv
All processed CSVs in data/global_analysis/, data/presidency_clusters/, and data/presidency_divisive/ are included and are sufficient to explore the results without the raw data.
| Step | Method | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Vote Encoding | Ternary | Yes = +1, No = −1, Abstain = 0, Absent = NaN |
| Alignment Score | Pearson correlation | Country vote vector vs. U.S. vote vector per presidency |
| Dimensionality Reduction | PCA | Retaining 95% of variance |
| Clustering | K-means | Optimal k selected by silhouette score maximization |
| Topic Classification | Keyword matching | 5,694 resolutions → 10 categories from 438 UN subject fields |
| Cluster Switching | Transition rate | % of countries changing cluster at each presidential transition |
The ternary encoding was validated empirically: silhouette score of 0.44 vs. 0.30 for binary encoding.
| Presidency | Period | Pro-US Mean | Resolutions | Countries |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bush Sr | 1989–1992 | +0.031 | 352 | 180 |
| Clinton | 1993–2000 | +0.007 | 563 | 188 |
| Reagan | 1981–1988 | −0.033 | 1,198 | 158 |
| Biden | 2021–2024 | −0.012 | 358 | 193 |
| Obama | 2009–2016 | −0.057 | 586 | 193 |
| Trump I | 2017–2020 | −0.077 | 401 | 193 |
| Bush Jr | 2001–2008 | −0.111 | 627 | 194 |
| Trump II | 2025–present | −0.171 | 192 | 191 |
| Rank | Country | Alignment |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel | +0.713 |
| 2 | Germany (West) | +0.623 |
| 3 | Micronesia | +0.588 |
| 4 | Canada | +0.542 |
| 5 | United Kingdom | +0.533 |
| 6 | Marshall Islands | +0.494 |
| 7 | Australia | +0.487 |
| 8 | Palau | +0.478 |
| 9 | Luxembourg | +0.474 |
| 10 | Italy | +0.473 |
| Rank | Country | Alignment |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Korea | −0.612 |
| 2 | Cuba | −0.506 |
| 3 | Syria | −0.501 |
| 4 | Vietnam | −0.474 |
| 5 | Algeria | −0.440 |
| 6 | Namibia | −0.434 |
| 7 | Angola | −0.414 |
| 8 | USSR | −0.407 |
| 9 | Eritrea | −0.396 |
| 10 | Libya | −0.379 |
| Power | Countries >50% agreement | Countries >80% agreement | Top ally agreement |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | ~170 | ~90 | North Korea (93%) |
| Russia | ~120 | ~5 | Belarus (77%) |
| USA | ~15 | 0 | Israel (76%) |
| Topic | Resolutions | U.S. Agreement % |
|---|---|---|
| Terrorism & Security | 34 | 51.6% |
| International Law & UN Reform | 291 | 34.2% |
| Health & Humanitarian | 44 | 31.8% |
| Human Rights | 813 | 27.8% |
| Economic Development | 158 | 22.8% |
| Nuclear & Disarmament | 1,100 | 18.5% |
| Specific Country Situations | 135 | 17.0% |
| Environment & Climate | 17 | 11.8% |
| Palestine & Middle East | 829 | 6.6% |
| Decolonization & Sovereignty | 358 | 5.0% |
| Transition | Switching Rate |
|---|---|
| Biden → Trump II | 97.4% |
| Bush Sr → Clinton | 66.5% |
| Clinton → Bush Jr | 55.2% |
| Bush Jr → Obama | 49.7% |
| Obama → Trump I | 45.3% |
| Trump I → Biden | 42.8% |
| Reagan → Bush Sr | 38.1% |
Open interactive_maps/un_alignment_interactive_map.html in a browser to explore an interactive global choropleth showing pro-US alignment by country and presidency.
Located in pictures/pca/. Each plot shows the 2D PCA projection of country vote vectors for a single presidency, colored by K-means cluster assignment.
Located in pictures/pro_us_histograms/. Histograms showing the distribution of pro-US alignment scores across all countries for each presidency.
Located in linkedin_post/. A curated set of 20 publication-ready figures covering isolation trends, topic heatmaps, bloc sizes, radar charts, and network visualizations.
python >= 3.9
pandas >= 1.5
numpy >= 1.23
scikit-learn >= 1.2
scipy >= 1.10
matplotlib >= 3.6
seaborn >= 0.12
networkx >= 3.0
python-louvain >= 0.16
umap-learn >= 0.5
plotly >= 5.0
pycountry >= 22.3
Install with:
pip install pandas numpy scikit-learn scipy matplotlib seaborn networkx python-louvain umap-learn plotly pycountry# 1. Place raw data at data/raw/2026_02_06_ga_voting.csv
# 2. Run the core analysis (generates clusters, alignment scores, PCA plots, histograms)
python code/un_analysis.py
# 3. Generate the comprehensive country report
python code/generate_comprehensive_report.py
# 4. Generate LinkedIn publication figures
python code/generate_linkedin_graphs.py| Project | Repository |
|---|---|
| European Cohesion Analysis | unga-european-cohesion-analysis |
| Influence Power Index | unga-influence-power-index |
Garriscalzada, A. (2026). Quantitative Analysis of United Nations General Assembly
Voting Patterns (1981–2025): Global Alignment, Bloc Formation, and the Structural
Isolation of the United States. GitHub repository.
https://github.com/AlvaroGarrisCalzada/UN_Analysis
This project is licensed under the MIT License. The underlying UN voting data is in the public domain.