The ETF Layer for Prediction Markets
Systematic basket construction, cross-exchange execution, and institutional analytics across Polymarket & Kalshi.
We're building the infrastructure to trade prediction markets the way institutions trade everything else.
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Building the systematic trading layer for prediction markets — basket indices, cross-exchange execution, real-time Greeks, and quantitative research pipelines.
Live infrastructure: Polymarket + Kalshi · 24 baskets · institutional-grade analytics
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iran-oil-statarb Systematic Brent crude stat-arb from Middle East prediction market signals. Sharpe 1.27 · 58% win rate · 2.16 PF.  
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basket-engine Core basket construction and rebalancing engine for prediction market indices.  
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pm-history-tracker Historical data pipeline for prediction market contracts across exchanges.  
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| Prediction Market Infrastructure | Unified execution across Polymarket & Kalshi with basket-level portfolio management |
| 24 Live Baskets | Systematic indices spanning geopolitics, macro, elections, tech, and armed conflict |
| Quantitative Research | Statistical arbitrage strategies extracting alpha from prediction market signals into traditional commodities |
| Real-time Greeks | Institutional-grade PnL tracking, factor models, and dynamic rebalancing |
| Historical Data | Comprehensive contract-level pipelines for backtesting and signal generation |
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| Mar 2025 | Published Iran Oil StatArb — Brent crude prediction from S3 basket signals (Sharpe 1.27, 58% win rate, 2.16 profit factor) |
| Mar 2025 | 24 systematic baskets live across Polymarket & Kalshi |
| Mar 2025 | Cross-exchange execution engine operational |
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itomarkets.com · Substack · 𝕏 · Instagram
