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Summary

  • Changes CBO income tax calibration target from income_tax to income_tax_positive
  • Matches CBO's receipts definition where refundable credit payments in excess of liability are outlays

Supersedes #495 (rebased onto main; original targeted stale db-work branch).

Context

CBO reports income tax receipts where refundable credit payments in excess of tax liability are classified as outlays (spending), not negative receipts. PolicyEngine's income_tax can be negative when refundable credits exceed liability. The impact is ~$81B (~4% of federal income tax receipts).

Dependencies

Requires policyengine-us PR: PolicyEngine/policyengine-us#7288

Test plan

  • Verify income_tax_positive variable exists in policyengine-us after PR merges
  • Run make database to verify ETL executes successfully

Closes #494

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

CBO reports income tax receipts where refundable credit payments in
excess of liability are outlays, not negative receipts. Changes the
calibration target from income_tax to income_tax_positive to match.

Recreated from PR #495 rebased onto main.

Closes #494

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
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Reviewed. Code change is clean and well-documented.

⚠️ Blocked on upstream: Requires policyengine-us PR #7288 to merge first (adds the income_tax_positive variable). Without it, make database will fail at the validation step when checking that target variables exist in policyengine-us.

Ready to merge once the upstream dependency lands.

@MaxGhenis
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Upstream dependency (policyengine-us#7288) is already merged. Ready to merge.

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis merged commit edac8d6 into main Jan 31, 2026
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Fix federal income tax calibration to match CBO receipts definition

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