Implement daily temperature-based gas price adjustments

cases.csv

@@ -143,6 +143,7 @@ GSw_GasCurve,"Select natural gas supply curve (0 = cendiv, 1 = national + cendiv
 GSw_GasCC_H_1x1,Turn on/off both gas-CC_H_1x1 and gas-CC_H_1x1-CCS_mod/max plant options,0; 1,0,
 GSw_GasCC_H_2x1,Turn on/off both gas-CC_H_2x1 and gas-CC_H_2x1-CCS_mod/max plant options,0; 1,0,
 GSw_GasCT_Aero,Turn on/off gas-CT_aeroderivative technology option,0; 1,0,
+GSw_GasPriceAdjMethod,"Select method for adjusting gas prices (0 = no adjustment, 1 = national wintertime markup, 2 = daily adjustments based on regional temperatures)",0; 1; 2,1,
 GSw_GasRegionSmooth,Exponential decay length [km] to use when smoothing regional (census division) gas prices together (if 0 then no smoothing is applied and r:cendiv map is used 1:1),float,150,
 GSw_GasSector,Select sector scope of gas curves,electric_sector; energy_sector,electric_sector,
 GSw_GenMandate,Turn on/off national Gen Requirement. 2 turns on and applies constraint at busbar.,0; 1; 2,0,

docs/source/plotting_scripts/maps.py

@@ -48,37 +48,37 @@
 c = {'r':cm(7), 'g':cm(5), 'b':cm(1), 'y':cm(3)}
 cmap = {
     'transreg': {
-        'CAISO':plt.cm.tab20(3),
-        'NorthernGrid':plt.cm.tab20(1),
-        'WestConnect':plt.cm.tab20(5),
-        'SPP':plt.cm.tab20(3),
-        'MISO':plt.cm.tab20(5),
-        'ERCOT':plt.cm.tab20(1),
-        'PJM':plt.cm.tab20(3),
-        'SERTP':plt.cm.tab20(1),
-        'FRCC':plt.cm.tab20(5),
-        'NYISO':plt.cm.tab20(1),
-        'ISONE':plt.cm.tab20(5),
+        'CAISO':cm(3),
+        'NorthernGrid':cm(1),
+        'WestConnect':cm(5),
+        'SPP':cm(3),
+        'MISO':cm(5),
+        'ERCOT':cm(1),
+        'PJM':cm(3),
+        'SERTP':cm(1),
+        'FRCC':cm(5),
+        'NYISO':cm(1),
+        'ISONE':cm(5),
     },
     'transgrp': {
-        'CAISO':plt.cm.tab20c(6),
-        'NorthernGrid_West':plt.cm.tab20c(1),
-        'NorthernGrid_East':plt.cm.tab20c(2),
-        'NorthernGrid_South':plt.cm.tab20c(3),
-        'WestConnect_North':plt.cm.tab20c(9),
-        'WestConnect_South':plt.cm.tab20c(10),
-        'SPP_North':plt.cm.tab20c(5),
-        'SPP_South':plt.cm.tab20c(6),
-        'MISO_North':plt.cm.tab20c(9),
-        'MISO_Central':plt.cm.tab20c(10),
-        'MISO_South':plt.cm.tab20c(11),
-        'ERCOT':plt.cm.tab20c(2),
-        'PJM_West':plt.cm.tab20c(5),
-        'PJM_East':plt.cm.tab20c(6),
-        'SERTP':plt.cm.tab20c(2),
-        'FRCC':plt.cm.tab20c(10),
-        'NYISO':plt.cm.tab20c(2),
-        'ISONE':plt.cm.tab20c(10),
+        'CAISO':cm2(6),
+        'NorthernGrid_West':cm2(1),
+        'NorthernGrid_East':cm2(2),
+        'NorthernGrid_South':cm2(3),
+        'WestConnect_North':cm2(9),
+        'WestConnect_South':cm2(10),
+        'SPP_North':cm2(5),
+        'SPP_South':cm2(6),
+        'MISO_North':cm2(9),
+        'MISO_Central':cm2(10),
+        'MISO_South':cm2(11),
+        'ERCOT':cm2(2),
+        'PJM_West':cm2(5),
+        'PJM_East':cm2(6),
+        'SERTP':cm2(2),
+        'FRCC':cm2(10),
+        'NYISO':cm2(2),
+        'ISONE':cm2(10),
     },
     'st': {
         'WA':c['b'], 'OR':c['y'], 'CA':c['b'], 'ID':c['r'], 'NV':c['g'],
@@ -120,6 +120,19 @@
         'Mid_Atlantic':c['y'],
         'New_England':c['b'],
     },
+    'gasreg': {
+        'California':cm2(2),
+        'Northwest':cm2(3),
+        'Mountain':cm2(6),
+        'Southwest':cm2(7),
+        'West_North_Central':c['b'],
+        'West_South_Central':c['g'],
+        'East_North_Central':c['g'],
+        'East_South_Central':c['y'],
+        'South_Atlantic':c['b'],
+        'Mid_Atlantic':c['y'],
+        'New_England':c['b'],
+    },
     'nercr': {
         'WECC_CA':c['y'],
         'WECC_NW':c['b'],
@@ -154,8 +167,21 @@
 ### Plot it
 alpha = 0.8
 draw_states = True
-draw_zones = True
-label_zones = {'r': False}
+draw_zones = {
+    'st':False,
+    'cendiv':False,
+    'usda_region':False,
+    'h2ptcreg':False,
+    'gasreg':False,
+}
+label_zones = {
+    'r':False,
+    'st':False,
+    'cendiv':False,
+    'usda_region':False,
+    'h2ptcreg':False,
+    'gasreg':False,
+}
 draw_lakes = True
 draw_counties = False
 label_regions = {'hurdlereg': False}
@@ -176,7 +202,7 @@
     )
     if draw_states:
         dfmap['st'].plot(ax=ax, facecolor='none', edgecolor='C7', lw=0.6, zorder=1e8)
-    if draw_zones:
+    if draw_zones.get(level, True):
         dfmap['r'].plot(ax=ax, facecolor='none', edgecolor='C7', lw=0.3, zorder=1e7)
     if draw_counties:
         dfcounty.plot(ax=ax, facecolor='none', edgecolor='C7', lw=0.02, zorder=1e6)
@@ -210,7 +236,7 @@
     ax.axis('off')
     savename = (
         f"{level}"
-        f"-z{int(draw_zones)}"
+        f"-z{int(draw_zones.get(level, True))}"
         f"-s{int(draw_states)}"
         f"-l{int(draw_lakes)}"
         f"-zl{int(label_zones.get(level, True))}"

docs/source/references.bib

@@ -21425,6 +21425,14 @@ @techreport{nipscoNIPSCOIntegratedResource2018a
   url = {https://www.nipsco.com/docs/librariesprovider11/rates-and-tariffs/irp/2018-nipsco-irp-appendix-a.pdf?sfvrsn=2}
 }
 
+@misc{noaaDailyDegreeDays,
+  title = {Daily Degree Days},
+  author = {NOAA},
+  institution = {{National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration}},
+  url = {https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/htdocs/degree_days/weighted/daily_data/},
+  urldate = {2026-06-10}
+}
+
 @techreport{noaaNationalClimateReport2010,
   title = {National {{Climate Report}} - {{December}} 2009},
   author = {NOAA},
@@ -28028,6 +28036,14 @@ @article{usterOptimizationDesignOperation2014
   abstract = {We consider the problem of designing a new natural gas transmission network or expanding an existing network while minimizing the total investment and operating costs. We develop an integrated large-scale mixed-integer nonlinear optimization model to determine pipelines in the network, compressor stations and their capacities, timings of these installations in a multi-period planning horizon, and natural gas purchase and steady-state flow decisions for each period in the network. The model is solvable using state-of-the-art solution methodologies available online. Employing our modeling and the solution methodology for its solution, we conduct computational studies on various test instances generated using realistic network structure and data based on the natural gas network in Turkey as well as data from literature. Our analysis provides insights into sensitivity of network configuration and operations to the number of periods within the planning horizon and cost parameters as well as into strategic decision making for design and expansion of natural gas networks.}
 }
 
+@misc{uvaWeldonCooperCenterPopulationProjections,
+  title = {National and 50-State Population Projections},
+  author = {{University of Virginia, Weldon Cooper Center for Public Serivce}},
+  year = 2024,
+  url = {https://coopercenter.org/national-population-projections},
+  urldate = {2026-06-10}
+}
+
 @article{vageroEffectsFairAllocation2024,
   title = {The Effects of Fair Allocation Principles on Energy System Model Designs},
   author = {V{\aa}ger{\"o}, Oskar and Jackson Inderberg, Tor H{\aa}kon and Zeyringer, Marianne},

docs/source/user_guide.md

@@ -236,7 +236,7 @@ To ensure the low carbon intensity of the electricity powering electrolyzers, th
 Example: if an electrolyzer is put in service in 2028, only generators whose commercial operations dates are between 2025-2028 may qualify to power this electrolyzer.
 This requirement starts immediately. There are special exceptions for nuclear, CCS and states with robust GHG emission caps - we do not model these additional pathways in ReEDS.
 2. Hourly matching: each MWh must be consumed by an electrolyzer in the same hour of the year in which it was generated.
-3. Deliverablity: each MWh must be consumed by an electrolyzer in the same region in which it was generated. Regional matching is required at the National Transmission Needs Study region level, which corresponds to the H<sub>2</sub> PTC region level shown in {numref}`figure-hierarchy`.
+3. Deliverablity: each MWh must be consumed by an electrolyzer in the same region in which it was generated. Regional matching is required at the National Transmission Needs Study region level, which corresponds to the H<sub>2</sub> PTC region level shown in {numref}`figure-spatial_layers_states`.
 
 Source: [Guidelines to Determine Well-to-Gate GHG Emissions of Hydrogen Production Pathways using 45VH2-GREET 2023](https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2023-12/greet-manual_2023-12-20.pdf), 2023, Figure 2
 

docs/sources.csv

@@ -262,6 +262,8 @@ RelativeFilePath,RelativeFolderPath,FileName_new,FileExtension,Description_new,I
 /inputs/fuelprices/coal_AEO_2026_altelec.csv,/inputs/fuelprices,coal_AEO_2026_altelec,.csv,AEO2026 Alternative Electricity case census division fuel price of coal with missing New England values set to Mid Atlantic,"t,cendiv",2025,AEO2026,Input,$/MMBtu
 /inputs/fuelprices/coal_AEO_2026_baseline.csv,/inputs/fuelprices,coal_AEO_2026_baseline,.csv,AEO2026 Counterfactual Baseline case census division fuel price of coal with missing values forward-filled from earlier years and missing New England values set to Mid Atlantic,"t,cendiv",2025,AEO2026,Input,$/MMBtu
 /inputs/fuelprices/dollaryear.csv,/inputs/fuelprices,dollaryear,.csv,Dollar year mapping for each fuel price scenario,,,,,
+/inputs/fuelprices/gasreg_degree_day_price_mult_regression_params.csv,/inputs/fuelprices,gasreg_degree_day_price_mult_regression_params,.csv,"Coefficients and intercepts derived from regression regressing daily gasreg heating/cooling degree days on daily deviations of gas prices from their annual average price with monthly fixed effects (https://github.com/ReEDS-Model/ReEDS_Input_Processing/tree/main/aeo_updates/temperature_gas_price_regression). ""Beta"" values are HDD/CDD coefficients and ""alpha"" values are intercepts and monthly fixed effects.",param,,,Input,
+/inputs/fuelprices/gasreg_degree_days.csv,/inputs/fuelprices,gasreg_degree_days,.csv,Annual heating and cooling degree days for each gasreg,"t,ddtype",,AEO: https://github.com/EIAgov/NEMS/blob/main/input/bld/kdegday.txt,Input,
 /inputs/fuelprices/h2-combustion_10.csv,/inputs/fuelprices,h2-combustion_10,.csv,price of hydrogen for combustion technologies (h2-ct and cc) at $10/MMBtu for all years,,,,,
 /inputs/fuelprices/h2-combustion_30.csv,/inputs/fuelprices,h2-combustion_30,.csv,price of hydrogen for combustion technologies (h2-ct and cc) at $30/MMBtu for all years,,,,,
 /inputs/fuelprices/h2-combustion_reference.csv,/inputs/fuelprices,h2-combustion_reference,.csv,price of hydrogen for combustion technologies (h2-ct and cc) at $20/MMBtu for all years,,,,,

docs/sources_documentation.md

@@ -1569,6 +1569,19 @@
     - **Description:** Dollar year mapping for each fuel price scenario
 ---
 
+  - [gasreg_degree_day_price_mult_regression_params.csv](/inputs/fuelprices/gasreg_degree_day_price_mult_regression_params.csv)
+    - **File Type:** Input
+    - **Description:** Coefficients and intercepts derived from regression regressing daily gasreg heating/cooling degree days on daily deviations of gas prices from their annual average price with monthly fixed effects (https://github.com/ReEDS-Model/ReEDS_Input_Processing/tree/main/aeo_updates/temperature_gas_price_regression). "Beta" values are HDD/CDD coefficients and "alpha" values are intercepts and monthly fixed effects.
+    - **Indices:** param
+---
+
+  - [gasreg_degree_days.csv](/inputs/fuelprices/gasreg_degree_days.csv)
+    - **File Type:** Input
+    - **Description:** Annual heating and cooling degree days for each gasreg
+    - **Indices:** t,ddtype
+    - **Citation:** AEO: https://github.com/EIAgov/NEMS/blob/main/input/bld/kdegday.txt
+---
+
   - [h2-combustion_10.csv](/inputs/fuelprices/h2-combustion_10.csv)
     - **Description:** price of hydrogen for combustion technologies (h2-ct and cc) at $10/MMBtu for all years
 ---

inputs/fuelprices/gasreg_degree_day_price_mult_regression_params.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+param,California,East_North_Central,East_South_Central,Mid_Atlantic,Mountain,New_England,Northwest,South_Atlantic,Southwest,West_North_Central,West_South_Central
+beta_CDD,0.03,0.009,0.01,0.035,0.029,0.05,0.031,0.019,0.02,0.01,0.011
+beta_HDD,0.016,0.011,0.011,0.029,0.012,0.036,0.02,0.022,0.015,0.015,0.014
+alpha,-0.321,-0.208,-0.092,-0.448,-0.383,-0.844,-0.554,-0.227,-0.436,-0.273,-0.18
+alpha_JAN,0.122,-0.214,-0.072,-0.201,0.046,-0.01,0.054,-0.05,0.227,-0.351,-0.066
+alpha_FEB,0.094,-0.156,-0.047,-0.354,0.049,-0.122,0.029,-0.06,0.22,-0.277,-0.028
+alpha_MAR,-0.03,-0.193,-0.075,-0.481,-0.085,-0.308,-0.089,-0.114,0.037,-0.267,-0.072
+alpha_APR,-0.015,-0.113,-0.002,-0.224,-0.059,-0.159,-0.08,-0.026,0.045,-0.159,-0.022
+alpha_MAY,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+alpha_JUN,-0.044,0.046,-0.077,0.029,0.015,0.143,0.099,-0.064,-0.08,0.045,-0.056
+alpha_JUL,-0.045,0.059,-0.113,-0.088,-0.001,0.04,0.222,-0.083,-0.002,0.069,-0.056
+alpha_AUG,0.05,0.117,-0.12,-0.066,0.104,0.08,0.318,-0.077,0.111,0.133,-0.006
+alpha_SEP,0.079,0.118,-0.134,-0.076,0.153,0.144,0.296,-0.062,0.121,0.12,0.051
+alpha_OCT,0.182,0.01,-0.205,-0.271,0.093,-0.032,0.208,-0.086,0.203,-0.018,0.071
+alpha_NOV,0.19,-0.083,-0.078,-0.319,0.095,-0.147,0.213,-0.043,0.262,-0.156,0.045
+alpha_DEC,0.247,-0.197,-0.098,-0.367,0.105,-0.102,0.16,-0.066,0.315,-0.31,-0.056

inputs/fuelprices/gasreg_degree_days.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,83 @@
+t,ddtype,California,East_North_Central,East_South_Central,Mid_Atlantic,Mountain,New_England,Northwest,South_Atlantic,Southwest,West_North_Central,West_South_Central
+2010,CDD,757,963,1974,913,700,634,137,2271,2202,1095,2754
+2010,HDD,2706,6188,3954,5539,6173,5935,5599,3163,2693,6570,2450
+2011,CDD,830,858,1725,840,724,553,112,2260,2335,1074,3112
+2011,HDD,2791,6173,3347,5471,6430,6113,6106,2564,2737,6570,2113
+2012,CDD,1047,974,1760,819,932,563,154,2163,2428,1221,2913
+2012,HDD,2401,5356,2880,4960,5520,5563,5675,2305,2309,5520,1648
+2013,CDD,1011,689,1438,685,888,540,245,2001,2296,892,2535
+2013,HDD,2309,6623,3651,5827,6392,6425,5527,2736,2663,7140,2325
+2014,CDD,1201,609,1491,600,731,420,254,2000,2207,812,2474
+2014,HDD,1765,7196,3935,6190,5776,6676,5073,2961,2162,7309,2421
+2015,CDD,1195,729,1717,809,788,556,304,2397,2262,941,2742
+2015,HDD,2000,6165,3224,5762,5469,6520,4832,2496,2339,6093,2085
+2016,CDD,1073,958,1956,891,852,625,186,2404,2370,1072,2882
+2016,HDD,2110,5701,3095,5338,5551,5928,5082,2464,2129,5792,1750
+2017,CDD,1171,708,1585,665,855,451,279,2247,2390,910,2718
+2017,HDD,2204,5684,2837,5318,5682,6037,5790,2239,1964,6004,1580
+2018,CDD,1044,972,1928,890,878,668,235,2411,2362,1134,2855
+2018,HDD,2281,6434,3479,5769,6000,6323,5547,2638,2486,6975,2252
+2019,CDD,913,832,1886,787,774,536,130,2503,2275,951,2759
+2019,HDD,2636,6427,3181,5736,6422,6538,5696,2392,2571,7082,2143
+2020,CDD,1141,831,1636,848,782,645,193,2335,2502,964,2735
+2020,HDD,2472,5855,3064,5198,6204,5822,5484,2263,2665,6326,1812
+2021,CDD,1050,911,1611,837,818,604,318,2226,2099,1093,2644
+2021,HDD,2567,5747,3166,5261,6097,5799,5610,2366,2506,6061,1911
+2022,CDD,1117,816,1728,838,791,647,283,2302,2186,1050,2992
+2022,HDD,2521,6344,3438,5635,6683,6019,5869,2523,2872,6905,2200
+2023,CDD,782,713,1669,683,583,518,209,2258,2157,1042,3117
+2023,HDD,2956,5417,2826,4954,6642,5564,5710,2150,2963,5929,1725
+2024,CDD,1081,899,1859,867,766,620,235,2399,2371,1046,3073
+2024,HDD,2655,5306,3024,4981,6108,5643,5740,2271,2798,5716,1844
+2025,CDD,814,851,1773,845,710,609,246,2400,2131,1046,2901
+2025,HDD,2383,5952,3161,5319,5867,5924,5487,2344,2453,6383,1949
+2026,CDD,1104,856,1781,853,789,615,240,2415,2160,1051,2915
+2026,HDD,2431,5937,3148,5298,6120,5901,5753,2329,2592,6376,1942
+2027,CDD,1112,861,1788,860,789,621,242,2430,2142,1056,2928
+2027,HDD,2427,5923,3136,5277,6120,5879,5771,2313,2598,6369,1935
+2028,CDD,1120,866,1796,868,789,627,244,2445,2124,1061,2942
+2028,HDD,2424,5908,3123,5256,6119,5856,5789,2298,2605,6362,1928
+2029,CDD,1128,871,1803,876,789,633,246,2460,2106,1066,2955
+2029,HDD,2420,5894,3111,5235,6118,5833,5808,2283,2612,6355,1921
+2030,CDD,1137,876,1811,884,788,640,248,2476,2088,1071,2969
+2030,HDD,2417,5879,3098,5214,6117,5810,5826,2267,2619,6348,1914
+2031,CDD,1145,881,1818,892,788,646,250,2491,2072,1076,2982
+2031,HDD,2413,5864,3086,5193,6117,5787,5844,2251,2623,6341,1907
+2032,CDD,1153,886,1826,900,788,652,252,2507,2056,1081,2996
+2032,HDD,2410,5850,3073,5172,6117,5764,5863,2235,2627,6334,1900
+2033,CDD,1161,890,1834,908,788,659,254,2522,2040,1086,3010
+2033,HDD,2406,5835,3060,5151,6117,5741,5881,2220,2631,6327,1893
+2034,CDD,1169,895,1841,915,787,665,255,2538,2024,1092,3023
+2034,HDD,2403,5820,3048,5130,6117,5718,5900,2204,2635,6319,1886
+2035,CDD,1177,900,1849,923,787,671,257,2553,2008,1097,3037
+2035,HDD,2399,5806,3035,5109,6117,5695,5918,2188,2639,6312,1879
+2036,CDD,1185,905,1857,931,787,678,259,2569,1991,1102,3050
+2036,HDD,2396,5791,3022,5088,6117,5672,5937,2173,2644,6304,1872
+2037,CDD,1193,910,1864,939,786,684,261,2585,1975,1107,3064
+2037,HDD,2392,5776,3009,5068,6117,5649,5955,2157,2648,6297,1865
+2038,CDD,1202,915,1872,947,786,690,263,2600,1958,1112,3077
+2038,HDD,2389,5762,2996,5047,6117,5626,5974,2141,2653,6289,1858
+2039,CDD,1210,920,1879,955,786,697,265,2616,1942,1117,3091
+2039,HDD,2385,5747,2984,5026,6118,5603,5992,2125,2657,6282,1852
+2040,CDD,1218,925,1887,963,785,703,267,2632,1925,1122,3104
+2040,HDD,2382,5732,2971,5005,6118,5579,6011,2110,2662,6274,1845
+2041,CDD,1226,930,1895,971,785,710,269,2648,1908,1128,3118
+2041,HDD,2378,5717,2958,4984,6118,5556,6029,2094,2667,6267,1838
+2042,CDD,1234,935,1902,978,785,716,271,2663,1892,1133,3131
+2042,HDD,2374,5703,2945,4963,6118,5533,6048,2079,2671,6259,1831
+2043,CDD,1242,940,1910,986,784,722,273,2679,1875,1138,3145
+2043,HDD,2371,5688,2933,4943,6119,5510,6066,2063,2676,6252,1825
+2044,CDD,1250,945,1918,994,784,729,275,2695,1858,1143,3158
+2044,HDD,2367,5673,2920,4922,6119,5487,6085,2047,2681,6244,1818
+2045,CDD,1258,950,1925,1002,784,735,277,2711,1841,1148,3172
+2045,HDD,2364,5658,2907,4901,6119,5464,6103,2032,2686,6236,1811
+2046,CDD,1267,955,1933,1010,783,741,278,2727,1824,1153,3185
+2046,HDD,2360,5644,2894,4880,6120,5440,6122,2016,2690,6229,1805
+2047,CDD,1275,960,1940,1018,783,748,280,2742,1807,1159,3199
+2047,HDD,2357,5629,2881,4859,6120,5417,6140,2001,2695,6221,1798
+2048,CDD,1283,965,1948,1026,783,754,282,2758,1790,1164,3212
+2048,HDD,2353,5614,2869,4838,6121,5394,6159,1985,2700,6213,1791
+2049,CDD,1291,970,1956,1033,782,760,284,2774,1772,1169,3226
+2049,HDD,2350,5599,2856,4818,6121,5371,6177,1970,2706,6206,1785
+2050,CDD,1299,975,1963,1041,782,767,286,2790,1755,1174,3239
+2050,HDD,2346,5585,2843,4797,6122,5348,6196,1955,2711,6198,1778