PetroPulse is a specialized analytics platform designed to bridge the gap between global oil market volatility and the regulated Ethiopian energy landscape.
As of April 2026, Ethiopia faces unique challenges including the floating of the Birr (ETB) and regional supply chain shocks. This tool automates the calculation of Landed Costs (CIF) and provides a "Live Gap Analysis" comparing actual import costs against the Ministry of Trade and Regional Integration (MoTRI) retail caps.
The Ethiopian fuel distribution sector is currently navigating a "Triple Threat" crisis:
The floating ETB/USD exchange rate creates a moving target for importers, where a 1% shift in currency can result in millions of Birr in unbudgeted costs.
Regional instability in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz has spiked freight premiums and insurance rates, significantly increasing the Landed Cost above global Brent Crude benchmarks.
Large discrepancies between the global "True Cost" and the regulated "Pump Price" lead to massive over/under-recoveries, threatening the liquidity of national energy enterprises.
An end-to-end data pipeline and interactive dashboard that:
-
Automates Data Ingestion
Usesyfinanceto pull live Brent Crude and RBOB Gasoline futures. -
Landed Cost Engine
Custom mathematical model to calculate CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) including:- Exchange rates
- Maritime risk premiums
- Import duties
-
Margin Intelligence
Real-time tracking of the "Subsidy Gap":- Over-recovery state
- Subsidy state
-
Risk Modeling
Integrated 20-day Moving Average (SMA) to:- Filter market noise
- Identify optimal procurement windows
-
What-If Simulation
Interactive UI enabling executives to simulate:- Birr devaluation
- Freight cost spikes
- Impact on national fuel bill
Based on market analysis as of April, 2026:
With the current over-recovery period:
- Maximize import quotas
- Build a Strategic Reserve before further currency adjustments
Due to disruption in the Hormuz corridor:
- Shift to alternative supply routes
- Secure long-term charter agreements
Leverage platform insights to:
- Advocate for bi-weekly fuel price adjustments (instead of monthly)
- Reduce financial shocks during supply spikes
| Category | Tools / Technologies |
|---|---|
| Language | Python 3.10+ |
| Dashboard | Streamlit |
| Data Science | Pandas, NumPy |
| Visualization | Plotly |
| Financial Data | YFinance API |
| Analysis | Jupyter Notebook |
- National fuel procurement planning
- Import cost optimization
- Policy simulation & subsidy analysis
- Executive decision support
- Integration with real-time FX APIs (ETB/USD)
- AI-based price forecasting models
- Multi-country fuel benchmarking
- Alert system for cost threshold breaches
Aklilu Abera | Supply Chain Data Analyst
This tool is designed for analytical and decision-support purposes only.
Actual procurement decisions should consider official government policies and real-time market validations.