Will there be a warning for the next pandemic?

Analysis code for Lessler & Metcalf, Science Advances (forthcoming).

Reproducing

• code/ — R utility functions and Stan models
• notebooks/AnalysisNotebook.ipynb — main analysis
• notebooks/AnalysisNotebook_N4_N6.ipynb — sensitivity to number of critical mutations
• notebooks/emerge_df*.rds — cached 50M-simulation outputs from cluster

Requires R >= 4.3, tidyverse, gt, rstan, scico, viridis.