Phase 10 Session 3A — Form 4 insider transaction signal (null result, systematic negative IC documented)#11
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…ve IC, rejected Migration 0013: insider_transactions table (190,020 rows, 1,577 P txns, 140/140 tickers, 2018-01-02 to 2026-05-19, ON CONFLICT idempotent). EDGARClient.get_form4_xml + Form 4 XML parser (non-derivative transactions only, point-in-time on filed_at). Disk cache at data/cache/form4/ for idempotent re-runs. Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski opportunistic classifier in nexus/signals/factors/insider.py: ROUTINE iff same calendar-month P in each of 3 prior years; default OPPORTUNISTIC when history < 3 years. Signal normalised by adj_close x float_shares_M. IC results (primary insider_opportunistic_63d): 21d t=-1.983 / 63d t=-2.223 / 126d t=-2.658 -- uniform negative, HLZ FAIL. CALM regime 63d t=-2.773; late-third 21d t=-2.870 (worsening, not decaying). NON-CALM positive flip t=+0.67 statistically insufficient (N=8). Registered insider_opportunistic_63d as status='rejected' with full IC evidence in regime_profile. Not wired into aggregator. Paper trader unchanged. 9 TDD tests green (tests/test_insider_factors.py).
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Summary
insider_transactionstable — 190,020 rows, 1,577 open-marketpurchases, 140/140 tickers, 2018–2026, idempotent via
ON CONFLICT uq_insider_tx DO NOTHINGEDGARClient.get_form4_xml+ Form 4 XML parser (nexus/data/edgar/forms/form_4.py,non-derivative transactions only, point-in-time on
filed_at)nexus/signals/factors/insider.py:ROUTINE iff same calendar-month P in each of 3 prior years; OPPORTUNISTIC by default
_InsiderPanelwired opt-in intonexus/signals/backtest.py(3 lookback variants)tests/test_insider_factors.py)IC result
insider_opportunistic_63dICs are uniformly negative across every diagnostic:Signal direction is systematically inverted vs hypothesis. NON-CALM positive flip
(t≈+0.67, N=8) is statistically insufficient — same trap as Session 1 regime gate.
Registry
insider_opportunistic_63dwritten tosignal_registrywithstatus='rejected'and full IC evidence in
regime_profile. Not wired into aggregator.Paper trader unchanged from Phase 9 Session 1.